{ "ticker": { "uuid": "345d171e-5a42-43ef-ad2e-b29646714775", "symbol": "ILF", "name": "iShares Latin America 40 ETF", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 58.553, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.911, "architecture_energy": 19.648, "architecture_maturity": 24.326, "architecture_confidence": 45.492, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.01, "rotation_up": 34.1, "upward_expansion": 21.38, "deceleration": 39.76, "rotation_down": 25.94, "downward_expansion": 53.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 603.0, 599.928581, 601.707086, 605.648471 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 593.0, "trend_reference": 608.570504, "distance_from_trend": -0.025585, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 505.207342, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.173775, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.429499, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.039209, "excess_performance": 0.015457, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.025585, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02355, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.173775, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083149, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.014295, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012177, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.039209, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.525612, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 352, "relative_activity": 0.006459, "balance": 6.525612, "dry_up": 0.123273, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030747, "annualized_volatility": 0.16703, "from_high_reference": -0.092825, "from_low_reference": 0.243431 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 608.570504, "fair_value_reference": 505.207342, "structural_low": 574.48573, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.034409, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.03717, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.069565, "worst_return": -0.091245, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.012572, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.060198, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.025088, "worst_return": -0.110967, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.009804, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.090338, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.119398, "worst_return": -0.099791, "sufficient": false }, 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606.108106 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 613.5, "volume": 13291, "typical_volume": 54488.45, "trend": 607.83717, "fair_value": 504.326989, "relative_strength": 5.097939, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.570834, "energy": 17.028352, "activity_lines": [ 606.380001, 600.568974, 603.188539, 606.605708 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 593.0, "volume": 352, "typical_volume": 54494.85, "trend": 608.570504, "fair_value": 505.207342, "relative_strength": 1.429499, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.910698, "energy": 19.647995, "activity_lines": [ 603.0, 599.928581, 601.707086, 605.648471 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }