{ "ticker": { "uuid": "345e29c8-fcd5-4afe-a7a8-3278f432ac10", "symbol": "NERV", "name": "Minerva Neurosciences Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.941, "architecture_energy": 58.347, "architecture_maturity": 22.004, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.4, "rotation_up": 17.17, "upward_expansion": 12.74, "deceleration": 39.66, "rotation_down": 56.42, "downward_expansion": 83.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.176667, 4.353091, 4.7385, 5.09928 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.27, "trend_reference": 5.337833, "distance_from_trend": -0.20005, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.863568, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.105196, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.96914, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.110417, "excess_performance": -0.29787, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.20005, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028451, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.105196, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.305143, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.159691, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.490574, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.110417, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.330276, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 726008, "relative_activity": 0.687274, "balance": 0.330276, "dry_up": 0.746288, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.19508, "annualized_volatility": 0.830086, "from_high_reference": -0.657303, "from_low_reference": 1.426136 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.337833, "fair_value_reference": 3.863568, "structural_low": 3.85, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.014051, "positive_rate": 0.486486, "directional_follow_through": 0.513514, "median_excess_return": -0.016259, "regime_survival": 0.864865, "best_return": 1.132143, "worst_return": -0.505713, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.040198, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.08557, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 5.570552, "worst_return": -0.47955, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.424343, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.319266, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 5.375, "worst_return": -0.622978, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.17234, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.263001, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.053215, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.056931, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 8.7, "volume": 135640, "typical_volume": 3498765.5, "trend": 5.322833, "fair_value": 11.678636, "relative_strength": 42.90962, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", 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"typical_volume": 1275050.95, "trend": 5.341833, "fair_value": 3.932286, "relative_strength": -14.786057, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.043642, "energy": 43.377827, "activity_lines": [ 4.400667, 4.524727, 4.9765, 5.256419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.98, "volume": 693307, "typical_volume": 1226064.45, "trend": 5.343833, "fair_value": 3.895619, "relative_strength": -17.044398, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.766748, "energy": 61.187388, "activity_lines": [ 4.227333, 4.400909, 4.834524, 5.168559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.27, "volume": 726008, "typical_volume": 1056359.3, "trend": 5.337833, "fair_value": 3.863568, "relative_strength": -15.96914, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.941198, "energy": 58.347081, "activity_lines": [ 4.176667, 4.353091, 4.7385, 5.09928 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }