{ "ticker": { "uuid": "346280f8-d95d-499e-a6f7-81ddb1c41200", "symbol": "MOO", "name": "VANECK ETF TR VANECK AGRIBUSINESS ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 75.672, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 12.22, "architecture_energy": 21.544, "architecture_maturity": 16.082, "architecture_confidence": 60.993, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 67.06, "rotation_up": 53.88, "upward_expansion": 37.08, "deceleration": 41.89, "rotation_down": 14.99, "downward_expansion": 14.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 81.857333, 81.150909, 80.907571, 81.352172 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 81.1, "trend_reference": 81.683, "distance_from_trend": -0.007137, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 71.589266, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.132851, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.762017, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.023245, "excess_performance": -0.148869, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.007137, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036286, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.132851, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013786, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.06762, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031014, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.023245, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.425641, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 984288, "relative_activity": 0.668542, "balance": 0.425641, "dry_up": 0.5991, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026495, "annualized_volatility": 0.144384, "from_high_reference": -0.063078, "from_low_reference": 0.198967 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 81.683, "fair_value_reference": 71.589266, "structural_low": 76.4144, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.006839, "positive_rate": 0.578947, "directional_follow_through": 0.578947, "median_excess_return": -0.005742, "regime_survival": 0.421053, "best_return": 0.044218, "worst_return": -0.100921, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.021748, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.069704, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.14963, "worst_return": -0.11413, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.036107, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.034887, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.081511, "worst_return": 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1753612.55, "trend": 80.873333, "fair_value": 71.532568, "relative_strength": -1.564261, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.942798, "energy": 19.709504, "activity_lines": [ 80.977333, 80.091636, 80.735048, 81.19686 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 83.15, "volume": 558391, "typical_volume": 1659197.25, "trend": 81.210667, "fair_value": 71.553208, "relative_strength": -0.183913, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.372883, "energy": 29.791899, "activity_lines": [ 81.988, 80.688545, 80.903667, 81.343742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 81.72, "volume": 1162218, "typical_volume": 1547442.85, "trend": 81.478667, "fair_value": 71.572725, "relative_strength": -2.879768, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.148091, "energy": 24.483969, "activity_lines": [ 82.109333, 80.989273, 80.93081, 81.376602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 81.1, "volume": 984288, "typical_volume": 1472290.25, "trend": 81.683, "fair_value": 71.589266, "relative_strength": -6.762017, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.219859, "energy": 21.543563, "activity_lines": [ 81.857333, 81.150909, 80.907571, 81.352172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }