{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3468c15e-9dd4-47fb-8205-006031a9a9a5", "symbol": "SVY", "name": "Stavely Minerals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 52.849, "architecture_energy": 34.68, "architecture_maturity": 23.608, "architecture_confidence": 51.614, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.38, "rotation_up": 43.99, "upward_expansion": 73.09, "deceleration": 70.65, "rotation_down": 21.07, "downward_expansion": 4.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.016933, 0.016836, 0.01569, 0.015155 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.016, "trend_reference": 0.014783, "distance_from_trend": 0.0823, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.026875, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.404651, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.804258, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.230769, "excess_performance": 0.167064, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.0823, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025434, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.404651, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.220972, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.028043, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.10913, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.230769, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.774345, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 300536, "relative_activity": 0.066963, "balance": 1.774345, "dry_up": 0.794397, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.137019, "annualized_volatility": 0.697606, "from_high_reference": -0.36, "from_low_reference": 0.333333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.014783, "fair_value_reference": 0.026875, "structural_low": 0.012, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.195, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.192329, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.115385, "worst_return": -0.344828, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.291667, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.262782, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.198113, "worst_return": -0.346154, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.613208, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.499789, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.458333, "worst_return": -0.65, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 0.027753, "relative_strength": 21.82789, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.528688, "energy": 72.051077, "activity_lines": [ 0.017733, 0.016855, 0.015452, 0.015017 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.016, "volume": 3295379, "typical_volume": 4847960.55, "trend": 0.014917, "fair_value": 0.027311, "relative_strength": 0.45059, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.989394, "energy": 54.356311, "activity_lines": [ 0.017333, 0.016873, 0.015574, 0.015085 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.016, "volume": 300536, "typical_volume": 4488096.3, "trend": 0.014783, "fair_value": 0.026875, "relative_strength": -2.804258, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.848847, "energy": 34.679553, "activity_lines": [ 0.016933, 0.016836, 0.01569, 0.015155 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }