{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3472c9d5-b757-4795-acb7-6d1954da610e", "symbol": "CG1", "name": "Amundi ETF DAX UCITS ETF DR", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 56.018, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.806, "architecture_energy": 71.684, "architecture_maturity": 15.628, "architecture_confidence": 74.634, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.33, "rotation_up": 67.29, "upward_expansion": 88.07, "deceleration": 46.38, "rotation_down": 15.73, "downward_expansion": 14.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 452.693335, 448.540001, 442.605716, 437.862905 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 465.649994, "trend_reference": 435.045, "distance_from_trend": 0.070349, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 372.574039, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.249819, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.588545, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.061673, "excess_performance": -0.109218, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.070349, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013485, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.249819, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052789, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.075885, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039417, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.061673, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.190248, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1128, "relative_activity": 0.249243, "balance": 2.190248, "dry_up": 0.373865, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02435, "annualized_volatility": 0.184746, "from_high_reference": -0.002784, "from_low_reference": 0.200129 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 435.045, "fair_value_reference": 372.574039, "structural_low": 388.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.001049, "positive_rate": 0.514286, "directional_follow_through": 0.514286, "median_excess_return": -0.003978, "regime_survival": 0.742857, "best_return": 0.078295, "worst_return": -0.11209, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.018371, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.020314, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.123719, "worst_return": -0.070917, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.053112, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.047743, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.164123, "worst_return": -0.010712, 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"2026-07-31", "close": 452.850006, "volume": 2006, "typical_volume": 5331.65, "trend": 434.460001, "fair_value": 371.407693, "relative_strength": -7.779289, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.039444, "energy": 43.001438, "activity_lines": [ 446.42667, 444.417275, 439.427145, 435.850647 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 465.649994, "volume": 1128, "typical_volume": 4525.7, "trend": 435.045, "fair_value": 372.574039, "relative_strength": -7.588545, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.806231, "energy": 71.684255, "activity_lines": [ 452.693335, 448.540001, 442.605716, 437.862905 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }