{ "ticker": { "uuid": "34757f20-4f8e-4800-942c-43c6988fde78", "symbol": "300509", "name": "Jiangsu Newamstar Packaging Machinery Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.592, "architecture_energy": 62.921, "architecture_maturity": 66.728, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.21, "rotation_up": 27.11, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 57.07, "rotation_down": 52.69, "downward_expansion": 83.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.008, 8.173057, 9.065785, 10.003165 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 8.4, "trend_reference": 11.425423, "distance_from_trend": -0.264797, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.01101, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.048557, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.153757, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.468691, "excess_performance": -0.47609, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.264797, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09609, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.048557, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.448238, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.271538, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.148082, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.468691, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.280756, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27731715, "relative_activity": 0.968636, "balance": 0.280756, "dry_up": 1.093577, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103283, "annualized_volatility": 0.392681, "from_high_reference": -0.505882, "from_low_reference": 0.181435 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.425423, "fair_value_reference": 8.01101, "structural_low": 7.11, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.022436, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": 0.016911, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.138112, "worst_return": -0.184808, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.064685, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.026651, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.448352, "worst_return": -0.146644, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.03778, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.1531, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.826374, "worst_return": -0.088141, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-24", "close": 7.49, "volume": 35362485, "typical_volume": 28014268.55, "trend": 11.738089, "fair_value": 7.993736, "relative_strength": -33.275469, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.72362, "energy": 82.121342, "activity_lines": [ 7.892766, 8.345336, 9.447763, 10.447779 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.02, "volume": 32509594, "typical_volume": 28332328.95, "trend": 11.573423, "fair_value": 8.000359, "relative_strength": -27.104475, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.097272, "energy": 72.646421, "activity_lines": [ 7.879813, 8.200015, 9.226417, 10.207902 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.4, "volume": 27731715, "typical_volume": 28629664.85, "trend": 11.425423, "fair_value": 8.01101, "relative_strength": -27.153757, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.591735, "energy": 62.921139, "activity_lines": [ 8.008, 8.173057, 9.065785, 10.003165 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }