{ "ticker": { "uuid": "34797e71-4901-4109-a529-9654c623e5b2", "symbol": "JANT", "name": "ALLIANZIM U.S. EQUITY BUFFER10 JAN ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 68.037, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 86.928, "architecture_energy": 77.936, "architecture_maturity": 42.39, "architecture_confidence": 83.023, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.91, "rotation_up": 65.88, "upward_expansion": 91.17, "deceleration": 48.57, "rotation_down": 24.72, "downward_expansion": 15.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.41892, 44.175504, 43.804694, 43.203102 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 44.9842, "trend_reference": 42.529407, "distance_from_trend": 0.05772, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 36.290779, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.239549, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.284103, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.078758, "excess_performance": -0.046867, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.05772, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026363, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.239549, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000482, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.032841, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001197, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.078758, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.655677, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14884, "relative_activity": 0.279266, "balance": 2.655677, "dry_up": 0.891107, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.012089, "annualized_volatility": 0.08996, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.168421 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.529407, "fair_value_reference": 36.290779, "structural_low": 39.2401, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.011462, "positive_rate": 0.789474, "directional_follow_through": 0.789474, "median_excess_return": -0.00217, "regime_survival": 0.815789, "best_return": 0.044932, "worst_return": -0.04813, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.03275, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.011439, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.093467, "worst_return": -0.016797, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.075615, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.022117, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.116444, "worst_return": 0.027088, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"fair_value": 35.89961, "relative_strength": -2.684521, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.6005, "energy": 66.847913, "activity_lines": [ 43.91848, 43.810667, 43.184064, 42.67667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 44.0514, "volume": 147692, "typical_volume": 53852.6, "trend": 42.22661, "fair_value": 35.995283, "relative_strength": -1.699881, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.642408, "energy": 70.457557, "activity_lines": [ 43.99242, 43.870724, 43.335473, 42.800988 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 43.9116, "volume": 19927, "typical_volume": 53840.95, "trend": 42.31683, "fair_value": 36.088947, "relative_strength": -1.380129, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.344789, "energy": 72.867759, "activity_lines": [ 43.994213, 43.893609, 43.461163, 42.909697 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.3, "volume": 7470, "typical_volume": 53322.15, "trend": 42.4196, "fair_value": 36.187654, "relative_strength": -1.507294, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.8549, "energy": 73.509663, "activity_lines": [ 44.1282, 43.977993, 43.609411, 43.037643 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 44.9842, "volume": 14884, "typical_volume": 53296.9, "trend": 42.529407, "fair_value": 36.290779, "relative_strength": -3.284103, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.927817, "energy": 77.935703, "activity_lines": [ 44.41892, 44.175504, 43.804694, 43.203102 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }