{ "ticker": { "uuid": "347e4b70-88bd-418d-9ae0-0ca8441b0e64", "symbol": "CHRY", "name": "Chrysalis Investments Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.362, "architecture_energy": 44.036, "architecture_maturity": 76.044, "architecture_confidence": 94.563, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.63, "rotation_up": 23.82, "upward_expansion": 6.02, "deceleration": 54.66, "rotation_down": 49.09, "downward_expansion": 77.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.7528, 0.761327, 0.780119, 0.804594 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.755, "trend_reference": 0.855733, "distance_from_trend": -0.117716, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.904519, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.165302, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.575243, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.225641, "excess_performance": -0.276876, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.117716, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.128078, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.165302, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075154, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.305752, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019927, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.225641, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.262819, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6550949, "relative_activity": 0.881121, "balance": 0.262819, "dry_up": 1.221845, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062181, "annualized_volatility": 0.232758, "from_high_reference": -0.424543, "from_low_reference": 0.035665 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.855733, "fair_value_reference": 0.904519, "structural_low": 0.729, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.048101, "positive_rate": 0.380952, "directional_follow_through": 0.619048, "median_excess_return": -0.057357, "regime_survival": 0.809524, "best_return": 0.179969, "worst_return": -0.278517, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.075887, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.135312, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.431005, "worst_return": -0.496809, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.054407, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.07907, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.354839, "worst_return": -0.56, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.056641, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.049837, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.10179, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003876, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.058027, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 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"activity_lines": [ 0.7758, 0.777873, 0.798571, 0.831449 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.745, "volume": 9725661, "typical_volume": 7292409.3, "trend": 0.8843, "fair_value": 0.904058, "relative_strength": -32.10829, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.103255, "energy": 45.871221, "activity_lines": [ 0.766067, 0.771436, 0.791786, 0.821553 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.736, "volume": 14847724, "typical_volume": 7485525.4, "trend": 0.869567, "fair_value": 0.904224, "relative_strength": -32.924358, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.702004, "energy": 48.466202, "activity_lines": [ 0.755733, 0.764091, 0.784729, 0.811985 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.755, "volume": 6550949, "typical_volume": 7434790.3, "trend": 0.855733, "fair_value": 0.904519, "relative_strength": -30.575243, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.362393, "energy": 44.036108, "activity_lines": [ 0.7528, 0.761327, 0.780119, 0.804594 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }