{ "ticker": { "uuid": "348c313c-738f-488f-bd75-fb75fe48b8cc", "symbol": "002857", "name": "SMS Electric Co.,Ltd.Zhengzhou", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.243, "architecture_energy": 60.508, "architecture_maturity": 39.059, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.56, "rotation_up": 21.25, "upward_expansion": 10.81, "deceleration": 52.64, "rotation_down": 58.22, "downward_expansion": 81.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.412, 15.805455, 17.529381, 18.888344 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 16.280001, "trend_reference": 20.485667, "distance_from_trend": -0.205298, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.928029, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.038281, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.498221, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.311337, "excess_performance": -0.318736, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.205298, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066542, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.038281, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.383012, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.274982, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108798, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.311337, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.209357, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13053272, "relative_activity": 0.87529, "balance": 0.209357, "dry_up": 1.244308, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.10773, "annualized_volatility": 0.461467, "from_high_reference": -0.478205, "from_low_reference": 0.17971 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.485667, "fair_value_reference": 16.928029, "structural_low": 13.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.029412, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": -0.025414, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.278823, "worst_return": -0.242547, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.04054, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.015142, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.163409, "worst_return": -0.381616, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.153746, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.092555, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.397999, "worst_return": -0.356546, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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90.696801, "activity_lines": [ 15.761334, 16.863819, 18.790239, 19.939484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.33, "volume": 30262540, "typical_volume": 19497262.35, "trend": 20.811, "fair_value": 16.986035, "relative_strength": -35.814988, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.461543, "energy": 84.59697, "activity_lines": [ 15.145334, 16.187637, 18.218715, 19.507398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.57, "volume": 16116878, "typical_volume": 17358085.0, "trend": 20.634333, "fair_value": 16.952905, "relative_strength": -28.11275, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.718667, "energy": 76.619835, "activity_lines": [ 15.134, 15.876, 17.814953, 19.169269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.280001, "volume": 13053272, "typical_volume": 14913082.2, "trend": 20.485667, "fair_value": 16.928029, "relative_strength": -27.498221, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.242766, "energy": 60.508338, "activity_lines": [ 15.412, 15.805455, 17.529381, 18.888344 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }