{ "ticker": { "uuid": "34903dd9-a6c2-483b-a06a-8b153d01feb2", "symbol": "TRITN", "name": "Triton Holding Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 11.467, "architecture_energy": 5.693, "architecture_maturity": 36.0, "architecture_confidence": 59.394, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.4, "rotation_up": 31.05, "upward_expansion": 15.02, "deceleration": 57.51, "rotation_down": 35.36, "downward_expansion": 31.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.023333, 0.023091, 0.022857, 0.023011 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.03, "trend_reference": 0.023333, "distance_from_trend": 0.285714, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.085064, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.647325, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.332547, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.5, "excess_performance": 0.307675, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.285714, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078947, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.647325, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.144536, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.053325, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.41992, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.5, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.01916, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12036400, "relative_activity": 1.247119, "balance": 1.01916, "dry_up": 1.47589, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.333333, "annualized_volatility": 1.898472, "from_high_reference": -0.25, "from_low_reference": 2.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.023333, "fair_value_reference": 0.085064, "structural_low": 0.01, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.0625, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.042005, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.142857, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.12549, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": -0.129555, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.076923, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.22291, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.218237, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.241379, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.192661, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.071429, "worst_return": -0.263158, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2021-09-24", "end": "2021-12-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.137931, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2021-12-10", "end": "2022-09-02", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.12, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2022-09-09", "end": "2022-10-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2022-10-14", "end": "2022-12-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.052632, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-12-30", "end": "2023-06-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.055556, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-06-23", "end": "2023-10-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.176471, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-20", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.666667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.16, "volume": 46360500, "typical_volume": 120536370.0, "trend": 0.160333, "fair_value": 0.247756, "relative_strength": -4.400502, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.36395, "energy": 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"fair_value": 0.088333, "relative_strength": -41.058817, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.264031, "energy": 13.247128, "activity_lines": [ 0.023333, 0.023091, 0.023048, 0.023333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.02, "volume": 22522800, "typical_volume": 9705970.0, "trend": 0.024, "fair_value": 0.087564, "relative_strength": -40.543081, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.791999, "energy": 21.559792, "activity_lines": [ 0.022, 0.022545, 0.022714, 0.023075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.02, "volume": 13977500, "typical_volume": 8988590.0, "trend": 0.023667, "fair_value": 0.086731, "relative_strength": -39.539126, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.374908, "energy": 25.810341, "activity_lines": [ 0.020667, 0.022, 0.022429, 0.022817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.02, "volume": 8440700, "typical_volume": 9121220.0, "trend": 0.023333, "fair_value": 0.085897, "relative_strength": -37.633217, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.108209, "energy": 30.891403, "activity_lines": [ 0.02, 0.021636, 0.022143, 0.022581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.03, "volume": 12036400, "typical_volume": 9651365.0, "trend": 0.023333, "fair_value": 0.085064, "relative_strength": -5.332547, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.466811, "energy": 5.693131, "activity_lines": [ 0.023333, 0.023091, 0.022857, 0.023011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }