{ "ticker": { "uuid": "34987d33-9243-49cd-abff-0bd764679c17", "symbol": "000099", "name": "CITIC Offshore Helicopter Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.88, "architecture_energy": 58.336, "architecture_maturity": 94.696, "architecture_confidence": 94.39, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.4, "rotation_up": 20.89, "upward_expansion": 9.78, "deceleration": 54.1, "rotation_down": 60.86, "downward_expansion": 83.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.018, 14.357455, 15.249245, 16.121136 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 14.2, "trend_reference": 17.422391, "distance_from_trend": -0.184957, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.765577, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.200701, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.245305, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.279374, "excess_performance": -0.286774, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.184957, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098958, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.200701, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.251984, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.292453, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010776, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.279374, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.273162, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 40647455, "relative_activity": 1.006855, "balance": 0.273162, "dry_up": 1.044937, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 7 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082622, "annualized_volatility": 0.387437, "from_high_reference": -0.449072, "from_low_reference": 0.076573 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.422391, "fair_value_reference": 17.765577, "structural_low": 13.19, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.007557, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": -0.033001, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.122106, "worst_return": -0.155009, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.058563, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.032976, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.162554, "worst_return": -0.289231, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.008465, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.126112, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.644836, "worst_return": -0.247606, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-83.324936, "energy": 91.693594, "activity_lines": [ 14.198667, 14.958938, 15.93827, 16.849184 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.56, "volume": 45294802, "typical_volume": 44376365.65, "trend": 17.831103, "fair_value": 17.697444, "relative_strength": -31.596112, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.417123, "energy": 88.780219, "activity_lines": [ 13.850667, 14.612182, 15.625939, 16.56035 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.46, "volume": 41394348, "typical_volume": 41289362.8, "trend": 17.636714, "fair_value": 17.73077, "relative_strength": -25.087192, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.706537, "energy": 75.375559, "activity_lines": [ 13.956667, 14.489273, 15.436585, 16.34286 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.2, "volume": 40647455, "typical_volume": 40370709.15, "trend": 17.422391, "fair_value": 17.765577, "relative_strength": -29.245305, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.879577, "energy": 58.33618, "activity_lines": [ 14.018, 14.357455, 15.249245, 16.121136 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }