{ "ticker": { "uuid": "34999610-dc9d-46e2-ac5e-5aeadb112e9a", "symbol": "SOYB", "name": "WisdomTree Soybeans", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 72.564, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 51.541, "architecture_energy": 55.393, "architecture_maturity": 4.765, "architecture_confidence": 72.215, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.72, "rotation_up": 62.85, "upward_expansion": 82.41, "deceleration": 48.96, "rotation_down": 15.42, "downward_expansion": 16.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.883333, 24.603455, 24.411762, 24.354226 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 24.33, "trend_reference": 24.0995, "distance_from_trend": 0.009565, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.557692, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.009272, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.057161, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.036422, "excess_performance": -0.13447, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.009565, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01735, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.009272, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017372, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.110572, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041249, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.036422, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.118668, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3392, "relative_activity": 0.565961, "balance": 5.118668, "dry_up": 0.710955, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033529, "annualized_volatility": 0.197009, "from_high_reference": -0.071728, "from_low_reference": 0.153627 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.0995, "fair_value_reference": 24.557692, "structural_low": 22.77, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.006109, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.026363, "regime_survival": 0.588235, "best_return": 0.132408, "worst_return": -0.085253, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.015388, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.033257, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.266799, "worst_return": -0.137411, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.024599, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.155815, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.163472, "worst_return": -0.139629, "sufficient": 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"fair_value": 24.678077, "relative_strength": -8.479826, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.831206, "energy": 17.349457, "activity_lines": [ 24.082667, 24.026091, 24.157953, 24.057613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.02, "volume": 3966, "typical_volume": 9315.5, "trend": 23.806833, "fair_value": 24.644071, "relative_strength": -5.815651, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.586803, "energy": 33.700822, "activity_lines": [ 24.460333, 24.195909, 24.227214, 24.142161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.115, "volume": 6435, "typical_volume": 8440.05, "trend": 23.939, "fair_value": 24.615962, "relative_strength": -1.436983, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.502181, "energy": 71.293678, "activity_lines": [ 25.086333, 24.550455, 24.395191, 24.291075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.625, "volume": 3251, "typical_volume": 7306.95, "trend": 24.037167, "fair_value": 24.586026, "relative_strength": -7.506596, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.201552, "energy": 57.918286, "activity_lines": [ 25.051333, 24.601818, 24.41431, 24.335333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.33, "volume": 3392, "typical_volume": 5993.35, "trend": 24.0995, "fair_value": 24.557692, "relative_strength": -11.057161, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.540685, "energy": 55.393118, "activity_lines": [ 24.883333, 24.603455, 24.411762, 24.354226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }