{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3499a01e-1d4c-4d3b-a501-8ead43f3b33a", "symbol": "300471", "name": "Houpu Clean Energy Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.058, "architecture_energy": 50.085, "architecture_maturity": 92.32, "architecture_confidence": 63.665, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.52, "rotation_up": 27.55, "upward_expansion": 21.02, "deceleration": 66.94, "rotation_down": 41.82, "downward_expansion": 68.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.248, 9.170182, 9.816667, 10.750559 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 9.66, "trend_reference": 11.948, "distance_from_trend": -0.191496, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.982885, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.12045, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.375891, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.348618, "excess_performance": -0.356017, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.191496, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099397, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.12045, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.189791, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.223759, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032638, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.348618, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.558581, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 47699672, "relative_activity": 1.29246, "balance": 0.558581, "dry_up": 1.022683, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084806, "annualized_volatility": 0.394914, "from_high_reference": -0.437391, "from_low_reference": 0.162455 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.948, "fair_value_reference": 10.982885, "structural_low": 8.31, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.478261, "directional_follow_through": 0.478261, "median_excess_return": 0.005916, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.2661, "worst_return": -0.323794, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.028424, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.034794, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.451985, "worst_return": -0.319859, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.067093, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.023485, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.391805, "worst_return": -0.339192, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001026, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.009737, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.149649, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.165587, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.000775, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.279097, "energy": 87.94549, "activity_lines": [ 9.066, 9.638364, 10.891905, 11.761914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 9.38, "volume": 64414282, "typical_volume": 60540484.35, "trend": 12.463667, "fair_value": 11.107436, "relative_strength": -30.789575, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.387664, "energy": 78.412945, "activity_lines": [ 9.138667, 9.478909, 10.636429, 11.553118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.94, "volume": 43031894, "typical_volume": 57373981.45, "trend": 12.314, "fair_value": 11.074872, "relative_strength": -26.732328, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.982443, "energy": 66.190665, "activity_lines": [ 9.085333, 9.286727, 10.362667, 11.325785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.64, "volume": 32423180, "typical_volume": 47351083.95, "trend": 12.166, "fair_value": 11.042628, "relative_strength": -28.90704, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.797028, "energy": 67.087168, "activity_lines": [ 8.946, 9.097273, 10.095048, 11.088753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.31, "volume": 27818217, "typical_volume": 40702121.0, "trend": 12.046, "fair_value": 11.012756, "relative_strength": -21.742485, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.536831, "energy": 60.296879, "activity_lines": [ 9.055333, 9.086364, 9.924762, 10.904495 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.66, "volume": 47699672, "typical_volume": 36906099.35, "trend": 11.948, "fair_value": 10.982885, "relative_strength": -22.375891, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.05753, "energy": 50.085464, "activity_lines": [ 9.248, 9.170182, 9.816667, 10.750559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }