{ "ticker": { "uuid": "349d20c4-db2b-4a3b-871e-4f9650c65104", "symbol": "BDCZ", "name": "BDCZ", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 73.933, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -13.21, "architecture_energy": 9.163, "architecture_maturity": 13.016, "architecture_confidence": 56.783, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.81, "rotation_up": 27.83, "upward_expansion": 22.61, "deceleration": 38.8, "rotation_down": 25.94, "downward_expansion": 49.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.850625, 14.67982, 14.764372, 14.795279 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 15.5683, "trend_reference": 14.934261, "distance_from_trend": 0.042455, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.642009, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.004712, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.24501, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.017897, "excess_performance": -0.107728, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.042455, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02895, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.004712, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007846, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.10245, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045935, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.017897, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.973308, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7651, "relative_activity": 1.172118, "balance": 0.973308, "dry_up": 1.645998, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077311, "annualized_volatility": 0.218217, "from_high_reference": -0.141877, "from_low_reference": 0.24972 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.934261, "fair_value_reference": 15.642009, "structural_low": 12.457432, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.005812, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.014603, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.059725, "worst_return": -0.120216, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.024999, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.002575, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.145908, "worst_return": -0.090159, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.013238, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.011214, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.153692, "worst_return": -0.093209, "sufficient": true }, { 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.029184, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.033573, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.062561, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.051021, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.01689, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": 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"2026-07-24", "close": 14.3753, "volume": 19237, "typical_volume": 6276.15, "trend": 15.011905, "fair_value": 15.628141, "relative_strength": -14.331473, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.545119, "energy": 17.447908, "activity_lines": [ 14.524825, 14.51962, 14.718509, 14.792573 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.4415, "volume": 1494, "typical_volume": 6235.8, "trend": 14.955953, "fair_value": 15.63113, "relative_strength": -14.295886, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.603079, "energy": 16.874789, "activity_lines": [ 14.506078, 14.494575, 14.688327, 14.755772 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.5683, "volume": 7651, "typical_volume": 6527.5, "trend": 14.934261, "fair_value": 15.642009, "relative_strength": -10.24501, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.209703, "energy": 9.163406, "activity_lines": [ 14.850625, 14.67982, 14.764372, 14.795279 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }