{ "ticker": { "uuid": "34a90467-a4df-4df1-a01b-f3cefe741758", "symbol": "SJM", "name": "The J. M. Smucker Company", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.234, "architecture_energy": 52.892, "architecture_maturity": 31.506, "architecture_confidence": 82.447, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.36, "rotation_up": 62.19, "upward_expansion": 80.78, "deceleration": 60.92, "rotation_down": 18.09, "downward_expansion": 7.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 117.894667, 116.149636, 110.785822, 108.06288 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 120.16, "trend_reference": 105.673495, "distance_from_trend": 0.137087, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 106.506827, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.128191, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.559316, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.120296, "excess_performance": -0.005329, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.137087, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047267, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.128191, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.222023, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.025593, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.172249, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.120296, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.561683, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4814043, "relative_activity": 0.582204, "balance": 4.561683, "dry_up": 0.85624, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059957, "annualized_volatility": 0.290357, "from_high_reference": -0.058639, "from_low_reference": 0.376483 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 105.673495, "fair_value_reference": 106.506827, "structural_low": 87.294913, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.013267, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": 0.014994, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.085689, "worst_return": -0.076835, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.02581, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.027224, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.116959, "worst_return": -0.077694, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.043132, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.047586, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.075311, "worst_return": -0.245948, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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106.670792, "relative_strength": 5.377624, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.418497, "energy": 53.034168, "activity_lines": [ 114.842667, 113.318727, 107.835307, 106.105663 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 119.26, "volume": 8351592, "typical_volume": 8630308.0, "trend": 104.951864, "fair_value": 106.582523, "relative_strength": 5.187894, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.168317, "energy": 50.286006, "activity_lines": [ 116.339333, 114.796909, 109.301822, 107.08171 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 120.16, "volume": 4814043, "typical_volume": 8268656.5, "trend": 105.673495, "fair_value": 106.506827, "relative_strength": 2.559316, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.2344, "energy": 52.892267, "activity_lines": [ 117.894667, 116.149636, 110.785822, 108.06288 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }