{ "ticker": { "uuid": "34abd8ff-a6db-4d34-9872-99be4455af8c", "symbol": "JCE", "name": "Nuveen Core Equity Alpha Fund", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 91.153, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.383, "architecture_energy": 52.992, "architecture_maturity": 37.152, "architecture_confidence": 78.538, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.0, "rotation_up": 63.62, "upward_expansion": 82.59, "deceleration": 54.95, "rotation_down": 19.81, "downward_expansion": 6.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.582667, 16.417292, 16.186202, 15.891923 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 16.95, "trend_reference": 15.584141, "distance_from_trend": 0.087644, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.2092, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.283197, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.706488, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.111158, "excess_performance": -0.014467, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.087644, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028566, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.283197, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019082, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.007065, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020842, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.111158, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.34407, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 248676, "relative_activity": 1.231789, "balance": 2.34407, "dry_up": 0.945576, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032091, "annualized_volatility": 0.163548, "from_high_reference": -0.013962, "from_low_reference": 0.238753 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.584141, "fair_value_reference": 13.2092, "structural_low": 13.68312, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.012804, "positive_rate": 0.648649, "directional_follow_through": 0.648649, "median_excess_return": -0.002568, "regime_survival": 0.837838, "best_return": 0.06882, "worst_return": -0.086614, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.047379, "positive_rate": 0.785714, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": 0.001542, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.102451, "worst_return": -0.053358, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.085021, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.000862, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.155074, "worst_return": -0.146623, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"up", "direction": 58.526736, "energy": 54.951302, "activity_lines": [ 16.301333, 16.183026, 15.916758, 15.679883 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.4, "volume": 152878, "typical_volume": 199279.45, "trend": 15.487505, "fair_value": 13.122242, "relative_strength": 0.408809, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.110171, "energy": 62.91682, "activity_lines": [ 16.355333, 16.235525, 15.996558, 15.74095 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.41, "volume": 220427, "typical_volume": 199182.95, "trend": 15.532402, "fair_value": 13.164311, "relative_strength": -0.558503, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.081051, "energy": 54.338876, "activity_lines": [ 16.400667, 16.280457, 16.069806, 15.800465 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.95, "volume": 248676, "typical_volume": 201882.05, "trend": 15.584141, "fair_value": 13.2092, "relative_strength": -0.706488, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.383117, "energy": 52.991635, "activity_lines": [ 16.582667, 16.417292, 16.186202, 15.891923 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }