{ "ticker": { "uuid": "34af5cb6-dfb7-408e-8b4e-250b5718f4bb", "symbol": "BOUL", "name": "Boule Diagnostics AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 94.784, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -13.971, "architecture_energy": 7.049, "architecture_maturity": 24.171, "architecture_confidence": 45.332, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.96, "rotation_up": 27.59, "upward_expansion": 24.62, "deceleration": 41.52, "rotation_down": 26.67, "downward_expansion": 50.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.662667, 3.638, 3.564238, 3.658559 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.6, "trend_reference": 3.903, "distance_from_trend": -0.077633, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.638865, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.528726, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -31.458748, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.28, "excess_performance": -0.341494, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.077633, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.138157, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.528726, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087209, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.314587, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.192534, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.28, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.506576, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 367881, "relative_activity": 2.258642, "balance": 0.506576, "dry_up": 1.294415, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.133547, "annualized_volatility": 0.497314, "from_high_reference": -0.457831, "from_low_reference": 0.309091 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.903, "fair_value_reference": 7.638865, "structural_low": 2.75, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.019428, "positive_rate": 0.409091, "directional_follow_through": 0.409091, "median_excess_return": -0.029738, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.087886, "worst_return": -0.273333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.13, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.111111, "median_excess_return": -0.127665, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.073634, "worst_return": -0.422222, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.22549, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.200422, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.068884, "worst_return": -0.540342, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.33394, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.424209, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.249554, "worst_return": -0.560199, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-05-19", "end": "2023-11-24", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.06015, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-01", "end": "2023-12-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.052533, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-01-05", "end": "2024-01-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.041431, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.074346, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.011136, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.045131, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.009153, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.078704, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.353925, "energy": 18.314208, "activity_lines": [ 3.683333, 3.530364, 3.566143, 3.761978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.45, "volume": 289926, "typical_volume": 158899.6, "trend": 4.048667, "fair_value": 7.762327, "relative_strength": -34.147766, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.009271, "energy": 20.157326, "activity_lines": [ 3.636, 3.532727, 3.544619, 3.719204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.65, "volume": 74228, "typical_volume": 156383.85, "trend": 4.005, "fair_value": 7.72175, "relative_strength": -30.376687, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.608656, "energy": 13.765112, "activity_lines": [ 3.656667, 3.566364, 3.54619, 3.693484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.82, "volume": 111287, "typical_volume": 151833.9, "trend": 3.956333, "fair_value": 7.679186, "relative_strength": -27.012281, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.877998, "energy": 8.311058, "activity_lines": [ 3.704, 3.626182, 3.565381, 3.681548 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.6, "volume": 367881, "typical_volume": 162877.05, "trend": 3.903, "fair_value": 7.638865, "relative_strength": -31.458748, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.970634, "energy": 7.049162, "activity_lines": [ 3.662667, 3.638, 3.564238, 3.658559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }