{ "ticker": { "uuid": "34bd0580-3eef-49c7-8035-72ec4990532d", "symbol": "C9Q", "name": "Sinostar PEC Holdings Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 94.33, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 8.848, "architecture_energy": 15.32, "architecture_maturity": 14.403, "architecture_confidence": 42.493, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.99, "rotation_up": 25.71, "upward_expansion": 16.91, "deceleration": 57.01, "rotation_down": 45.88, "downward_expansion": 41.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0986, 0.099164, 0.102414, 0.102101 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.115, "trend_reference": 0.101767, "distance_from_trend": 0.130036, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.128354, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.10404, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.840899, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.138614, "excess_performance": -0.016221, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.130036, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049502, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.10404, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100962, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.158409, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091014, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.138614, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.728618, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1319600, "relative_activity": 3.235503, "balance": 1.728618, "dry_up": 1.490805, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.098997, "annualized_volatility": 0.526433, "from_high_reference": -0.258065, "from_low_reference": 0.4375 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.101767, "fair_value_reference": 0.128354, "structural_low": 0.08, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.441176, "median_excess_return": -0.011147, "regime_survival": 0.794118, "best_return": 0.130081, "worst_return": -0.140351, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.044997, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.069231, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.263158, "worst_return": -0.240876, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.12185, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.106467, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.146341, "worst_return": -0.266066, "sufficient": true }, { 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.130081, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.06383, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.05036, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": 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0.102833, "fair_value": 0.128431, "relative_strength": -35.296294, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.381147, "energy": 58.137956, "activity_lines": [ 0.0954, 0.099273, 0.102643, 0.102267 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.087, "volume": 195300, "typical_volume": 363955.0, "trend": 0.101733, "fair_value": 0.128247, "relative_strength": -36.28123, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.9047, "energy": 71.562559, "activity_lines": [ 0.091867, 0.0964, 0.101186, 0.101245 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.115, "volume": 1319600, "typical_volume": 407850.0, "trend": 0.101767, "fair_value": 0.128354, "relative_strength": -15.840899, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.848068, "energy": 15.319792, "activity_lines": [ 0.0986, 0.099164, 0.102414, 0.102101 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }