{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "34c3670a-8085-4b1f-8420-8337067723ec",
    "symbol": "VGH",
    "name": "Vanguard U.S. Dividend Appreciation Index ETF (CAD-hedged)",
    "exchange": "TOR",
    "country": "CA",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GSPTSE",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 70.137,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 87.73,
    "architecture_energy": 70.134,
    "architecture_maturity": 38.952,
    "architecture_confidence": 72.905,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 8.22,
        "rotation_up": 65.44,
        "upward_expansion": 84.92,
        "deceleration": 59.87,
        "rotation_down": 22.38,
        "downward_expansion": 11.59
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        75.834668,
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        73.391727
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 77.260002,
    "trend_reference": 72.445076,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.066463,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 63.106103,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.224287,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -3.322405,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.059947,
    "excess_performance": -0.060475,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.066463,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.022995,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.224287,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.046577,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.033224,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.034901,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.059947,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.024167,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 18300,
      "relative_activity": 0.737012,
      "balance": 1.024167,
      "dry_up": 1.097463,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.014887,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.105038,
      "from_high_reference": -0.005023,
      "from_low_reference": 0.173533
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 72.445076,
      "fair_value_reference": 63.106103,
      "structural_low": 66.669998,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 43,
        "median_return": 0.0147,
        "positive_rate": 0.697674,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.697674,
        "median_excess_return": -0.004683,
        "regime_survival": 0.813953,
        "best_return": 0.055439,
        "worst_return": -0.075991,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 13,
        "median_return": 0.015798,
        "positive_rate": 0.692308,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.692308,
        "median_excess_return": -0.029795,
        "regime_survival": 0.615385,
        "best_return": 0.072749,
        "worst_return": -0.0439,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": 0.049795,
        "positive_rate": 0.888889,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.888889,
        "median_excess_return": -0.022199,
        "regime_survival": 0.666667,
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        "worst_return": -0.131854,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.094066,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
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        "worst_return": -0.063717,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2024-05-17",
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        "return": 0.040125,
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
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      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "trend": 70.403393,
        "fair_value": 61.156579,
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        "stage": 3,
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "trend": 70.656505,
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        "direction": 75.372158,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 37780.0,
        "trend": 70.816632,
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        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "trend": 70.987994,
        "fair_value": 61.76088,
        "relative_strength": -4.78613,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 32740.0,
        "trend": 71.157087,
        "fair_value": 61.908314,
        "relative_strength": -5.223006,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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        "direction": 73.04043,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
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        "fair_value": 62.059491,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "trend": 71.439607,
        "fair_value": 62.202032,
        "relative_strength": -5.054067,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.416045,
        "energy": 73.137179,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 75.559998,
        "volume": 1300,
        "typical_volume": 27910.0,
        "trend": 71.612988,
        "fair_value": 62.360193,
        "relative_strength": -3.600546,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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        "direction": 84.580893,
        "energy": 84.058427,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 75.419998,
        "volume": 28500,
        "typical_volume": 28025.0,
        "trend": 71.775072,
        "fair_value": 62.51133,
        "relative_strength": -3.690102,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 78.491397,
        "energy": 87.428149,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 75.010002,
        "volume": 62100,
        "typical_volume": 29880.0,
        "trend": 71.940396,
        "fair_value": 62.65297,
        "relative_strength": -3.865144,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.903793,
        "energy": 83.676273,
        "activity_lines": [
          75.041233,
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          73.389804,
          72.667132
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 75.260002,
        "volume": 14900,
        "typical_volume": 29240.0,
        "trend": 72.094827,
        "fair_value": 62.796026,
        "relative_strength": -3.580064,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 68.686477,
        "energy": 83.196995,
        "activity_lines": [
          75.184667,
          74.799331,
          73.689567,
          72.8813
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 75.0,
        "volume": 13700,
        "typical_volume": 26555.0,
        "trend": 72.253557,
        "fair_value": 62.943852,
        "relative_strength": -3.288782,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.243399,
        "energy": 68.03481,
        "activity_lines": [
          75.164667,
          74.894682,
          73.940986,
          73.06873
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 77.260002,
        "volume": 18300,
        "typical_volume": 24830.0,
        "trend": 72.445076,
        "fair_value": 63.106103,
        "relative_strength": -3.322405,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 87.729727,
        "energy": 70.133839,
        "activity_lines": [
          75.834668,
          75.3744,
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          73.391727
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}