{ "ticker": { "uuid": "34c736d7-1290-4775-8b37-e67fe61097eb", "symbol": "PCG", "name": "Pengana Capital Group Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 49.819, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -11.538, "architecture_energy": 23.268, "architecture_maturity": 34.893, "architecture_confidence": 63.558, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.4, "rotation_up": 17.56, "upward_expansion": 29.97, "deceleration": 73.24, "rotation_down": 60.19, "downward_expansion": 29.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.747333, 0.775364, 0.773357, 0.763334 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.725, "trend_reference": 0.752203, "distance_from_trend": -0.036165, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.78261, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.073612, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.503537, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.012225, "excess_performance": -0.075931, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.036165, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058253, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.073612, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047846, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.045035, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.143447, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.012225, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.316992, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 68386, "relative_activity": 0.748712, "balance": 0.316992, "dry_up": 0.893588, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075332, "annualized_volatility": 0.40048, "from_high_reference": -0.211957, "from_low_reference": 0.154937 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.752203, "fair_value_reference": 0.78261, "structural_low": 0.665, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.036364, "positive_rate": 0.294118, "directional_follow_through": 0.294118, "median_excess_return": -0.043352, "regime_survival": 0.647059, "best_return": 0.13245, "worst_return": -0.142857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.070574, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.068122, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.214044, "worst_return": -0.137703, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.098541, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.101754, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.202482, "worst_return": -0.187149, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.030864, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.105794, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.067393, "worst_return": -0.37352, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.105882, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.088435, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.094595, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018988, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.084969, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.146995, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.013699, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.044586, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006803, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", 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"energy": 76.774265, "activity_lines": [ 0.832667, 0.804273, 0.777043, 0.761865 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.81, "volume": 76545, "typical_volume": 104473.95, "trend": 0.743426, "fair_value": 0.787862, "relative_strength": 11.957281, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.80173, "energy": 74.303668, "activity_lines": [ 0.833333, 0.807636, 0.782237, 0.76651 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.74, "volume": 153721, "typical_volume": 108619.55, "trend": 0.746524, "fair_value": 0.786156, "relative_strength": 2.768128, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.265878, "energy": 30.351351, "activity_lines": [ 0.805, 0.797818, 0.780357, 0.766289 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.725, "volume": 27823, "typical_volume": 104374.5, "trend": 0.749283, "fair_value": 0.784383, "relative_strength": -1.518793, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.026405, "energy": 12.091338, "activity_lines": [ 0.770333, 0.786182, 0.776905, 0.764901 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.725, "volume": 68386, "typical_volume": 91338.2, "trend": 0.752203, "fair_value": 0.78261, "relative_strength": -4.503537, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.537622, "energy": 23.268373, "activity_lines": [ 0.747333, 0.775364, 0.773357, 0.763334 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }