{ "ticker": { "uuid": "34c95a65-3897-434d-a9d2-a51fdf5f7f46", "symbol": "HBIO", "name": "Harvard Bioscience Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 76.794, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 57.452, "architecture_energy": 36.343, "architecture_maturity": 41.551, "architecture_confidence": 84.259, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.5, "rotation_up": 50.61, "upward_expansion": 78.93, "deceleration": 51.62, "rotation_down": 18.49, "downward_expansion": 5.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.223333, 6.162273, 6.077286, 5.935469 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.47, "trend_reference": 5.779967, "distance_from_trend": 0.119384, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.188782, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.679525, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.627757, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.306543, "excess_performance": 0.119089, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.119384, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039218, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.679525, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03515, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.006278, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083612, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.306543, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.408743, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 64501, "relative_activity": 0.407031, "balance": 1.408743, "dry_up": 0.378514, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.108209, "annualized_volatility": 0.833647, "from_high_reference": -0.311702, "from_low_reference": 0.723036 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.779967, "fair_value_reference": 20.188782, "structural_low": 4.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.018137, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.024708, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.595506, "worst_return": -0.367698, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.020877, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.132214, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.516245, "worst_return": -0.360825, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.117564, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.124743, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.981949, "worst_return": -0.611684, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.10983, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.115979, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.931408, "worst_return": -0.637394, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-08-25", "end": "2023-09-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055684, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-09-22", "end": "2023-10-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.06846, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-13", "end": "2023-11-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.125604, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-01", "end": "2023-12-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.113636, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2024-01-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.203704, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.111842, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.083933, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.127358, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.844006, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.512497, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.007088, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.17064, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.178846, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.056851, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 42.5, "volume": 1028274, "typical_volume": 1328174.95, "trend": 45.498333, "fair_value": 49.709936, "relative_strength": 0.153577, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.731663, 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5.890848, 5.820606 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 6.14, "volume": 65365, "typical_volume": 457623.8, "trend": 5.866, "fair_value": 21.250641, "relative_strength": -5.948201, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.485934, "energy": 14.431427, "activity_lines": [ 6.082667, 6.023636, 5.927248, 5.835555 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.23, "volume": 61261, "typical_volume": 401566.35, "trend": 5.8225, "fair_value": 20.96109, "relative_strength": -0.617948, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.100099, "energy": 30.93148, "activity_lines": [ 6.140667, 6.063818, 5.970762, 5.859039 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.0, "volume": 63640, "typical_volume": 358542.1, "trend": 5.7884, "fair_value": 20.693462, "relative_strength": -2.476639, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.814829, "energy": 27.703144, "activity_lines": [ 6.112, 6.074273, 5.991929, 5.87049 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.1, "volume": 50526, "typical_volume": 180230.15, "trend": 5.774433, "fair_value": 20.422949, "relative_strength": -1.595967, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.438244, "energy": 24.897117, "activity_lines": [ 6.108, 6.089273, 6.020238, 5.890594 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.47, "volume": 64501, "typical_volume": 158467.1, "trend": 5.779967, "fair_value": 20.188782, "relative_strength": -0.627757, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.451695, "energy": 36.343199, "activity_lines": [ 6.223333, 6.162273, 6.077286, 5.935469 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }