{ "ticker": { "uuid": "34cc27c2-f577-4207-94ac-09c7d8751e44", "symbol": "001217", "name": "Anhui Huaertai Chemical Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.095, "architecture_energy": 43.116, "architecture_maturity": 96.369, "architecture_confidence": 94.553, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.53, "rotation_up": 27.57, "upward_expansion": 19.36, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 43.78, "downward_expansion": 71.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.205333, 9.068545, 9.650538, 10.345265 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 9.68, "trend_reference": 11.283517, "distance_from_trend": -0.142111, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.227645, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.137842, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.31616, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.263521, "excess_performance": -0.270921, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.142111, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116178, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.137842, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.174172, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.213162, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007713, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.263521, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.736294, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28329460, "relative_activity": 1.479389, "balance": 0.736294, "dry_up": 1.462544, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081229, "annualized_volatility": 0.387445, "from_high_reference": -0.413028, "from_low_reference": 0.17905 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.283517, "fair_value_reference": 11.227645, "structural_low": 8.21, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.006877, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.008705, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.068548, "worst_return": -0.175173, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.081308, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.014626, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.126745, "worst_return": -0.198691, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.026912, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.045913, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.009221, "worst_return": -0.044603, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"down", "direction": -71.738065, "energy": 89.214123, "activity_lines": [ 9.056, 9.61223, 10.536949, 11.223471 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 8.59, "volume": 20664620, "typical_volume": 26984411.85, "trend": 11.854038, "fair_value": 11.28909, "relative_strength": -35.889824, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.58288, "energy": 89.793149, "activity_lines": [ 8.844, 9.320634, 10.269492, 11.001604 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.55, "volume": 19804920, "typical_volume": 24769026.25, "trend": 11.718416, "fair_value": 11.271311, "relative_strength": -29.251558, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.580056, "energy": 75.126572, "activity_lines": [ 8.696667, 9.082047, 10.026654, 10.78844 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.61, "volume": 23233710, "typical_volume": 22731161.75, "trend": 11.561022, "fair_value": 11.252919, "relative_strength": -28.455337, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.965227, "energy": 67.167011, "activity_lines": [ 8.642667, 8.913577, 9.816923, 10.587897 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.54, "volume": 40659450, "typical_volume": 20349434.25, "trend": 11.419771, "fair_value": 11.239864, "relative_strength": -18.95374, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.157149, "energy": 59.849735, "activity_lines": [ 8.931333, 8.967455, 9.718154, 10.457508 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.68, "volume": 28329460, "typical_volume": 19149437.25, "trend": 11.283517, "fair_value": 11.227645, "relative_strength": -21.31616, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.094821, "energy": 43.116118, "activity_lines": [ 9.205333, 9.068545, 9.650538, 10.345265 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }