{ "ticker": { "uuid": "34d3fbdb-ab3e-4e73-9d4a-f674238a0199", "symbol": "NUZ", "name": "Neurizon Therapeutics Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.595, "architecture_energy": 42.27, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 95.611, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.08, "rotation_up": 25.21, "upward_expansion": 6.01, "deceleration": 53.98, "rotation_down": 46.33, "downward_expansion": 77.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0624, 0.063073, 0.065981, 0.070662 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.063, "trend_reference": 0.07695, "distance_from_trend": -0.181287, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.143665, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.561479, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.784949, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.322581, "excess_performance": -0.386286, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.181287, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.136758, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.561479, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086576, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.377849, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014542, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.322581, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.223455, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 513153, "relative_activity": 0.222172, "balance": 0.223455, "dry_up": 1.217246, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.119048, "annualized_volatility": 0.523462, "from_high_reference": -0.629412, "from_low_reference": 0.105263 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.07695, "fair_value_reference": 0.143665, "structural_low": 0.057, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.011592, "positive_rate": 0.441176, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.007694, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.451613, "worst_return": -0.254545, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.032967, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.020128, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.192771, "worst_return": -0.235294, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.129412, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.180043, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 1.037037, "worst_return": -0.345455, "sufficient": true }, 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.097561, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.131579, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.176471, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.185185, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": 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"relative_strength": -35.754169, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.679197, "energy": 40.511484, "activity_lines": [ 0.0652, 0.064673, 0.070348, 0.075011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.063, "volume": 3172875, "typical_volume": 2437991.9, "trend": 0.079036, "fair_value": 0.14396, "relative_strength": -38.414932, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.836147, "energy": 38.626724, "activity_lines": [ 0.064733, 0.064145, 0.069155, 0.07388 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.06, "volume": 3799404, "typical_volume": 2491027.4, "trend": 0.07825, "fair_value": 0.143825, "relative_strength": -39.915057, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.03986, "energy": 37.507093, "activity_lines": [ 0.0634, 0.063309, 0.067814, 0.072652 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.062, "volume": 3760529, "typical_volume": 2506982.55, "trend": 0.077583, "fair_value": 0.143729, "relative_strength": -37.994294, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.007719, "energy": 41.547924, "activity_lines": [ 0.062867, 0.063055, 0.066769, 0.071603 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.063, "volume": 513153, "typical_volume": 2309713.25, "trend": 0.07695, "fair_value": 0.143665, "relative_strength": -37.784949, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.595183, "energy": 42.270366, "activity_lines": [ 0.0624, 0.063073, 0.065981, 0.070662 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }