{ "ticker": { "uuid": "34d40101-f90e-4040-9efd-a3bffb94c5ee", "symbol": "600692", "name": "Shang Hai Ya Tong Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.465, "architecture_energy": 54.243, "architecture_maturity": 71.823, "architecture_confidence": 93.538, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.09, "rotation_up": 27.43, "upward_expansion": 9.65, "deceleration": 60.73, "rotation_down": 51.27, "downward_expansion": 82.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.677333, 5.694727, 6.233143, 6.639699 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.93, "trend_reference": 7.061333, "distance_from_trend": -0.160215, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.899464, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.140513, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.939096, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.224837, "excess_performance": -0.181633, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.160215, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087801, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.140513, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.322841, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.209391, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.159326, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.224837, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.490339, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37793914, "relative_activity": 1.099951, "balance": 0.490339, "dry_up": 1.12434, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091711, "annualized_volatility": 0.307991, "from_high_reference": -0.379058, "from_low_reference": 0.167323 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.061333, "fair_value_reference": 6.899464, "structural_low": 5.08, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.021314, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": 0.010196, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.312381, "worst_return": -0.141745, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.060873, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": 0.066724, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.193117, "worst_return": -0.135537, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.075311, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.056474, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.215942, "worst_return": -0.242165, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.001096, "energy": 90.757617, "activity_lines": [ 5.678667, 6.123273, 6.75481, 7.042624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.54, "volume": 46404546, "typical_volume": 34129964.2, "trend": 7.232, "fair_value": 6.90134, "relative_strength": -24.256124, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.010223, "energy": 87.301129, "activity_lines": [ 5.584667, 5.934364, 6.59681, 6.929763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.32, "volume": 40510499, "typical_volume": 34244692.55, "trend": 7.156667, "fair_value": 6.898918, "relative_strength": -27.673499, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.045662, "energy": 77.42172, "activity_lines": [ 5.476, 5.752182, 6.430333, 6.806409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.74, "volume": 29818706, "typical_volume": 34132857.65, "trend": 7.097333, "fair_value": 6.899125, "relative_strength": -21.848308, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.09895, "energy": 62.673306, "activity_lines": [ 5.552, 5.691455, 6.317095, 6.715011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.93, "volume": 37793914, "typical_volume": 34359640.85, "trend": 7.061333, "fair_value": 6.899464, "relative_strength": -20.939096, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.464793, "energy": 54.242693, "activity_lines": [ 5.677333, 5.694727, 6.233143, 6.639699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }