{ "ticker": { "uuid": "34d58ade-5c44-4338-a819-28adc1889f0c", "symbol": "I2", "name": "I2 Enterprise Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.507, "architecture_energy": 22.16, "architecture_maturity": 55.714, "architecture_confidence": 82.031, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.3, "rotation_up": 30.46, "upward_expansion": 60.62, "deceleration": 85.16, "rotation_down": 27.52, "downward_expansion": 19.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.77, 0.784182, 0.754238, 0.733333 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.78, "trend_reference": 0.717413, "distance_from_trend": 0.087239, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.279043, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.390169, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.790176, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.069792, "excess_performance": -0.122533, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.087239, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078757, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.390169, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.136371, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.047902, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.213557, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.069792, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.821254, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5369200, "relative_activity": 2.065494, "balance": 6.821254, "dry_up": 1.020668, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076923, "annualized_volatility": 0.321153, "from_high_reference": -0.137265, "from_low_reference": 0.485822 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.717413, "fair_value_reference": 1.279043, "structural_low": 0.61, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.269841, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.215028, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.269841, "worst_return": 0.269841, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.238095, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.162073, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.238095, "worst_return": 0.238095, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.339081, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.056338, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.078227, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030303, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": 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"fair_value": 1.28712, "relative_strength": -10.865056, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.967492, "energy": 29.405487, "activity_lines": [ 0.774, 0.785273, 0.747762, 0.729123 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.78, "volume": 5369200, "typical_volume": 2599475.0, "trend": 0.717413, "fair_value": 1.279043, "relative_strength": -4.790176, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.507434, "energy": 22.160293, "activity_lines": [ 0.77, 0.784182, 0.754238, 0.733333 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }