{ "ticker": { "uuid": "34d5a2a3-a15e-4eb7-961b-7a470acfbf08", "symbol": "TNP", "name": "Thanapiriya Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 58.526, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.981, "architecture_energy": 23.906, "architecture_maturity": 12.507, "architecture_confidence": 63.293, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.78, "rotation_up": 54.05, "upward_expansion": 68.78, "deceleration": 51.86, "rotation_down": 12.29, "downward_expansion": 7.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.892, 2.869091, 2.877048, 2.865911 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.88, "trend_reference": 2.834548, "distance_from_trend": 0.016035, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.95194, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.02437, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.159287, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.088196, "excess_performance": -0.104129, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.016035, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024992, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.02437, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013436, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.121593, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052864, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.088196, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.587551, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1684200, "relative_activity": 1.770075, "balance": 1.587551, "dry_up": 1.186987, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034188, "annualized_volatility": 0.193499, "from_high_reference": -0.165304, "from_low_reference": 0.121423 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.834548, "fair_value_reference": 2.95194, "structural_low": 2.568165, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.006897, "positive_rate": 0.380952, "directional_follow_through": 0.380952, "median_excess_return": -0.010014, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.081081, "worst_return": -0.088889, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.043689, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.036703, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.148515, "worst_return": -0.142045, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.091236, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.028388, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.109786, "worst_return": -0.253364, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.827472, "energy": 17.802351, "activity_lines": [ 2.833333, 2.853818, 2.864712, 2.844823 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.92, "volume": 1323600, "typical_volume": 946635.0, "trend": 2.809233, "fair_value": 2.955106, "relative_strength": -13.09855, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.129749, "energy": 18.61494, "activity_lines": [ 2.870667, 2.861091, 2.870591, 2.852599 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.88, "volume": 1167200, "typical_volume": 931915.0, "trend": 2.817667, "fair_value": 2.954706, "relative_strength": -14.261111, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.782373, "energy": 24.936806, "activity_lines": [ 2.885333, 2.861455, 2.872667, 2.857165 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.9, "volume": 342600, "typical_volume": 891995.0, "trend": 2.826767, "fair_value": 2.954202, "relative_strength": -12.415481, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.861718, "energy": 27.125172, "activity_lines": [ 2.897333, 2.866182, 2.876095, 2.862477 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.88, "volume": 1684200, "typical_volume": 951485.0, "trend": 2.834548, "fair_value": 2.95194, "relative_strength": -12.159287, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.981347, "energy": 23.906012, "activity_lines": [ 2.892, 2.869091, 2.877048, 2.865911 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }