{ "ticker": { "uuid": "34dd1978-9778-4063-8dba-b43fbf7ebf3c", "symbol": "HCXY", "name": "Hercules Capital, Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 16.259, "architecture_energy": 16.557, "architecture_maturity": 42.804, "architecture_confidence": 65.637, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.53, "rotation_up": 48.52, "upward_expansion": 36.24, "deceleration": 39.19, "rotation_down": 22.65, "downward_expansion": 18.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.865501, 24.770545, 24.775447, 24.772641 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 25.0, "trend_reference": 24.77697, "distance_from_trend": 0.009002, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.0495, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.084622, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.63461, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.008094, "excess_performance": -0.117531, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.009002, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001712, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.084622, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007589, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.096346, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000421, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.008094, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.52622, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8355, "relative_activity": 0.581021, "balance": 2.52622, "dry_up": 0.892342, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013171, "annualized_volatility": 0.047728, "from_high_reference": -0.008415, "from_low_reference": 0.048313 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.77697, "fair_value_reference": 23.0495, "structural_low": 23.98205, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.007686, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.000712, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.047809, "worst_return": -0.096981, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.010882, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.010575, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.046338, "worst_return": -0.131703, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.036843, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.030595, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.043512, "worst_return": -0.056142, "sufficient": true }, { 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24.744926 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.71, "volume": 3985, "typical_volume": 13710.05, "trend": 24.759658, "fair_value": 22.993596, "relative_strength": -7.084854, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.780266, "energy": 26.334822, "activity_lines": [ 24.648973, 24.675131, 24.726037, 24.742083 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.0, "volume": 20605, "typical_volume": 14393.6, "trend": 24.7667, "fair_value": 23.020158, "relative_strength": -6.735615, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 5.421895, "energy": 5.938754, "activity_lines": [ 24.773435, 24.723292, 24.750857, 24.757589 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.0, "volume": 8355, "typical_volume": 14379.85, "trend": 24.77697, "fair_value": 23.0495, "relative_strength": -9.63461, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.258969, "energy": 16.556615, "activity_lines": [ 24.865501, 24.770545, 24.775447, 24.772641 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }