{ "ticker": { "uuid": "34ddd7d1-9162-4b3a-bac2-a9d607977a5b", "symbol": "INDO", "name": "Amundi MSCI Indonesia UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.613, "architecture_energy": 29.77, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 81.725, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.43, "rotation_up": 27.89, "upward_expansion": 22.25, "deceleration": 46.94, "rotation_down": 29.94, "downward_expansion": 60.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 72.798667, 71.758782, 73.312858, 77.565665 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 74.169998, "trend_reference": 84.544534, "distance_from_trend": -0.122711, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 117.10691, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.366647, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.128984, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.274919, "excess_performance": -0.32823, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.122711, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.135045, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.366647, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033831, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.27129, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042816, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.274919, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.483863, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12646, "relative_activity": 0.978577, "balance": 0.483863, "dry_up": 1.414297, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058936, "annualized_volatility": 0.338655, "from_high_reference": -0.357696, "from_low_reference": 0.182124 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 84.544534, "fair_value_reference": 117.10691, "structural_low": 62.743, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.022662, "positive_rate": 0.608696, "directional_follow_through": 0.391304, "median_excess_return": -0.010176, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.097211, "worst_return": -0.227354, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.052591, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.028894, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.188985, "worst_return": -0.226818, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.028564, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.033869, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.237397, "worst_return": -0.148413, "sufficient": true 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50.840279, "activity_lines": [ 71.086667, 70.620928, 74.942086, 80.324861 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 72.110001, "volume": 22168, "typical_volume": 12822.1, "trend": 87.020334, "fair_value": 117.964653, "relative_strength": -27.607707, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.130375, "energy": 47.32221, "activity_lines": [ 71.443334, 70.803928, 74.24201, 79.286613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 71.940002, "volume": 15375, "typical_volume": 13166.55, "trend": 85.764367, "fair_value": 117.525922, "relative_strength": -28.26048, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.266232, "energy": 39.951155, "activity_lines": [ 71.788668, 71.075583, 73.626253, 78.313689 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 74.169998, "volume": 12646, "typical_volume": 12922.85, "trend": 84.544534, "fair_value": 117.10691, "relative_strength": -27.128984, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.613433, "energy": 29.769959, "activity_lines": [ 72.798667, 71.758782, 73.312858, 77.565665 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }