{ "ticker": { "uuid": "34e68f7b-3fb1-4ac7-98af-70c9b914e5be", "symbol": "ALHOP", "name": "Hopscotch Global PR Group", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 75.695, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -0.226, "architecture_energy": 26.991, "architecture_maturity": 63.507, "architecture_confidence": 91.589, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.03, "rotation_up": 14.01, "upward_expansion": 43.23, "deceleration": 87.96, "rotation_down": 51.93, "downward_expansion": 39.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.866667, 15.882344, 15.975052, 15.253856 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 14.85, "trend_reference": 14.398773, "distance_from_trend": 0.031338, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.46063, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.097847, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.072918, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.197581, "excess_performance": 0.144269, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.031338, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.090816, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.097847, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060703, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.020729, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026598, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.197581, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.048088, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2690, "relative_activity": 1.028189, "balance": 1.048088, "dry_up": 0.871094, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086038, "annualized_volatility": 0.43655, "from_high_reference": -0.232201, "from_low_reference": 0.463054 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.398773, "fair_value_reference": 16.46063, "structural_low": 10.15, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.056872, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.035279, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.114942, "worst_return": -0.061905, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.071429, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.01164, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.658537, "worst_return": -0.099526, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.417857, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.150205, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.902439, "worst_return": -0.221825, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.276418, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.080827, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.559524, "worst_return": 0.034189, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.075829, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.148472, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.034211, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.05291, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.036517, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.127451, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.197674, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.056911, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.112426, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.151613, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.144404, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.157143, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010204, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 16.57641, "volume": 1367, "typical_volume": 3674.25, "trend": 16.935671, "fair_value": 10.614, "relative_strength": 2.698359, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": 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"modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.391983, "energy": 86.296999, "activity_lines": [ 18.501928, 17.785362, 15.943938, 15.033245 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 15.35, "volume": 7678, "typical_volume": 2349.9, "trend": 14.197107, "fair_value": 16.508851, "relative_strength": 4.314399, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.98469, "energy": 53.634546, "activity_lines": [ 17.421048, 17.516031, 16.011018, 15.112572 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.75, "volume": 4507, "typical_volume": 2547.9, "trend": 14.242107, "fair_value": 16.497443, "relative_strength": 0.675493, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.904366, "energy": 29.228598, "activity_lines": [ 16.318764, 17.105791, 16.010241, 15.148242 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.7, "volume": 1142, "typical_volume": 2557.5, "trend": 14.282107, "fair_value": 16.48751, "relative_strength": 0.33176, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.714925, "energy": 34.819806, "activity_lines": [ 15.499401, 16.670097, 15.996368, 15.177784 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.95, "volume": 777, "typical_volume": 2519.1, "trend": 14.338773, "fair_value": 16.475588, "relative_strength": 0.705249, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.132877, "energy": 34.333084, "activity_lines": [ 15.053333, 16.27713, 15.997258, 15.220873 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.85, "volume": 2690, "typical_volume": 2616.25, "trend": 14.398773, "fair_value": 16.46063, "relative_strength": -2.072918, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.225654, "energy": 26.990528, "activity_lines": [ 14.866667, 15.882344, 15.975052, 15.253856 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }