{ "ticker": { "uuid": "34edffb3-fd5e-42ec-82da-e731d4b70183", "symbol": "TESL", "name": "SIMPLIFY VOLT TSLA REVOLUTION ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.259, "architecture_energy": 72.703, "architecture_maturity": 13.775, "architecture_confidence": 80.772, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.32, "rotation_up": 8.26, "upward_expansion": 15.69, "deceleration": 37.2, "rotation_down": 77.16, "downward_expansion": 91.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.9909, 13.983216, 14.938612, 14.955463 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 12.891, "trend_reference": 15.115927, "distance_from_trend": -0.147191, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.761694, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.063269, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.725702, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.161834, "excess_performance": -0.287458, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.147191, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095995, "read": "Falling" 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"structural_low": 11.5256, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.044863, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.025587, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.299905, "worst_return": -0.147332, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.16866, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.105939, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.288804, "worst_return": -0.266238, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.054324, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.147833, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.519212, "worst_return": -0.355916, "sufficient": 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after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.881586, "energy": 9.280575, "activity_lines": [ 15.742727, 16.193111, 15.783352, 15.617034 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.8273, "volume": 12833, "typical_volume": 89512.75, "trend": 15.620397, "fair_value": 13.6666, "relative_strength": -25.48236, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.476554, "energy": 15.488503, "activity_lines": [ 15.416987, 15.848029, 15.739686, 15.551124 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.0641, "volume": 50650, "typical_volume": 90578.5, "trend": 15.41156, "fair_value": 13.694333, "relative_strength": -38.373057, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -47.628656, "energy": 41.215137, "activity_lines": [ 14.265027, 15.069278, 15.433205, 15.321686 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.1, "volume": 47027, "typical_volume": 91472.4, "trend": 15.255893, "fair_value": 13.724424, "relative_strength": -38.254411, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.255344, "energy": 63.190601, "activity_lines": [ 13.401727, 14.404156, 15.142647, 15.108037 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.891, "volume": 41218, "typical_volume": 90236.3, "trend": 15.115927, "fair_value": 13.761694, "relative_strength": -35.725702, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.258666, "energy": 72.703454, "activity_lines": [ 12.9909, 13.983216, 14.938612, 14.955463 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }