{ "ticker": { "uuid": "34f32531-08f3-4128-87cb-620f78bff31c", "symbol": "ADF", "name": "Facilities by ADF plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 94.749, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -4.491, "architecture_energy": 11.156, "architecture_maturity": 16.29, "architecture_confidence": 60.39, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.34, "rotation_up": 35.77, "upward_expansion": 37.23, "deceleration": 32.85, "rotation_down": 20.45, "downward_expansion": 40.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.134167, 0.133045, 0.130179, 0.131392 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.1325, "trend_reference": 0.137583, "distance_from_trend": -0.036947, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.315754, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.580369, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -21.076369, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.184615, "excess_performance": -0.235851, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.036947, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071864, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.580369, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057135, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.210764, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067712, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.184615, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.728501, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 788570, "relative_activity": 1.218496, "balance": 0.728501, "dry_up": 0.556687, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068447, "annualized_volatility": 0.351492, "from_high_reference": -0.3641, "from_low_reference": 0.394737 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.137583, "fair_value_reference": 0.315754, "structural_low": 0.095, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.019437, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.041871, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.067309, "worst_return": -0.409345, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.068688, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.108761, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.036506, "worst_return": -0.358429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.217352, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.292646, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.018278, "worst_return": -0.335008, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.292827, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.388307, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.006772, "worst_return": -0.592425, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.013559, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.044119, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.097222, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.320389, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.051284, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.146343, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.030308, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.058826, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.063692, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.130435, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.084746, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018519, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.495617, "volume": 610105, "typical_volume": 824993.25, "trend": 0.504515, "fair_value": 0.534589, "relative_strength": 3.356576, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early 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-19.978723, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.26901, "energy": 16.132068, "activity_lines": [ 0.1345, 0.131864, 0.128881, 0.132128 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.135, "volume": 90954, "typical_volume": 656602.25, "trend": 0.139, "fair_value": 0.317787, "relative_strength": -20.097934, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.462947, "energy": 14.902056, "activity_lines": [ 0.135, 0.132727, 0.129619, 0.131812 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.1325, "volume": 788570, "typical_volume": 647166.6, "trend": 0.137583, "fair_value": 0.315754, "relative_strength": -21.076369, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.491204, "energy": 11.155922, "activity_lines": [ 0.134167, 0.133045, 0.130179, 0.131392 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }