{ "ticker": { "uuid": "34facf87-d855-4913-96fa-b538d8129813", "symbol": "HUC", "name": "Global X Crude Oil ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 54.722, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 5.701, "architecture_energy": 8.405, "architecture_maturity": 29.002, "architecture_confidence": 73.484, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.27, "rotation_up": 27.05, "upward_expansion": 52.38, "deceleration": 71.94, "rotation_down": 22.94, "downward_expansion": 25.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.022, 23.945818, 24.579333, 24.436796 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 23.549999, "trend_reference": 23.699667, "distance_from_trend": -0.006315, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.501474, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.095274, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.315622, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.172809, "excess_performance": 0.052387, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.006315, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077225, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.095274, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.135937, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.043156, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.15115, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.172809, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.62885, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 235800, "relative_activity": 0.90286, "balance": 0.62885, "dry_up": 1.144274, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04341, "annualized_volatility": 0.297551, "from_high_reference": -0.161623, "from_low_reference": 0.286885 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.699667, "fair_value_reference": 21.501474, "structural_low": 19.74, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.002237, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": 0.006835, "regime_survival": 0.466667, "best_return": 0.128429, "worst_return": -0.088193, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.038871, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.016825, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.252459, "worst_return": -0.089373, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.00578, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.135037, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.411392, "worst_return": -0.097145, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.060536, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.032771, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.014328, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.036036, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.017223, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.04966, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.137688, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.041683, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028834, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 21.379999, "volume": 14500, "typical_volume": 17530.0, "trend": 19.838667, "fair_value": 17.169615, "relative_strength": 7.047822, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", 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25.214095, 24.116451 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 22.889999, "volume": 49600, "typical_volume": 312690.0, "trend": 22.706, "fair_value": 21.375128, "relative_strength": -4.509114, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.025539, "energy": 17.871292, "activity_lines": [ 24.304, 25.189454, 25.081762, 24.136408 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 23.030001, "volume": 3000, "typical_volume": 309350.0, "trend": 22.827333, "fair_value": 21.398462, "relative_strength": -4.399227, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -10.187211, "energy": 29.121919, "activity_lines": [ 23.696, 24.719091, 24.949381, 24.157312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 23.530001, "volume": 273600, "typical_volume": 318275.0, "trend": 22.986333, "fair_value": 21.421923, "relative_strength": -2.202076, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.771736, "energy": 29.641901, "activity_lines": [ 23.446, 24.384, 24.849714, 24.202645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.440001, "volume": 292800, "typical_volume": 330965.0, "trend": 23.182, "fair_value": 21.448526, "relative_strength": 1.877279, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.522264, "energy": 25.039902, "activity_lines": [ 23.673334, 24.263637, 24.823143, 24.29643 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.75, "volume": 281200, "typical_volume": 311600.0, "trend": 23.373667, "fair_value": 21.472244, "relative_strength": 2.993981, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.618291, "energy": 14.76281, "activity_lines": [ 24.070001, 24.227273, 24.809571, 24.397591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.98, "volume": 385600, "typical_volume": 284145.0, "trend": 23.548667, "fair_value": 21.488654, "relative_strength": 0.419509, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.604163, "energy": 10.224353, "activity_lines": [ 24.154, 24.100364, 24.712619, 24.43671 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.549999, "volume": 235800, "typical_volume": 261170.0, "trend": 23.699667, "fair_value": 21.501474, "relative_strength": -4.315622, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.701253, "energy": 8.405079, "activity_lines": [ 24.022, 23.945818, 24.579333, 24.436796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }