{ "ticker": { "uuid": "34ffaf85-ab32-49b4-9f1e-5c56bf8e4950", "symbol": "OCTT", "name": "ALLIANZIM U.S. EQUITY BUFFER10 OCT ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 70.166, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 88.593, "architecture_energy": 77.658, "architecture_maturity": 44.596, "architecture_confidence": 82.806, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.1, "rotation_up": 65.92, "upward_expansion": 90.28, "deceleration": 49.85, "rotation_down": 25.8, "downward_expansion": 14.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.080553, 46.823404, 46.390818, 45.721291 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 47.6859, "trend_reference": 44.964347, "distance_from_trend": 0.060527, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 38.975015, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.223499, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.359216, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.085329, "excess_performance": -0.040296, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.060527, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025711, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.223499, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00908, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.033592, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002744, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.085329, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.416834, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11323, "relative_activity": 0.264176, "balance": 2.416834, "dry_up": 1.186531, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.011322, "annualized_volatility": 0.086885, "from_high_reference": -4.4e-05, "from_low_reference": 0.162438 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.964347, "fair_value_reference": 38.975015, "structural_low": 41.5112, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.008539, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.003238, "regime_survival": 0.871795, "best_return": 0.052567, "worst_return": -0.039692, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.035875, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.013191, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.055168, "worst_return": -0.036008, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.067497, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.026011, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.093202, "worst_return": 0.005888, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"typical_volume": 35633.85, "trend": 44.524927, "fair_value": 38.60654, "relative_strength": -2.823435, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.955514, "energy": 77.634522, "activity_lines": [ 46.561847, 46.411545, 45.698101, 45.132369 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 46.6717, "volume": 171433, "typical_volume": 43820.0, "trend": 44.63492, "fair_value": 38.696487, "relative_strength": -1.851066, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.902352, "energy": 78.394237, "activity_lines": [ 46.634113, 46.481682, 45.86686, 45.270871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 46.5293, "volume": 5916, "typical_volume": 43935.35, "trend": 44.726567, "fair_value": 38.784623, "relative_strength": -1.510901, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.213138, "energy": 77.115937, "activity_lines": [ 46.62704, 46.511093, 46.008197, 45.393089 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 46.9693, "volume": 14754, "typical_volume": 44059.05, "trend": 44.841497, "fair_value": 38.877517, "relative_strength": -1.574485, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.024482, "energy": 75.5642, "activity_lines": [ 46.767673, 46.609255, 46.175422, 45.537781 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.6859, "volume": 11323, "typical_volume": 42861.5, "trend": 44.964347, "fair_value": 38.975015, "relative_strength": -3.359216, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.592851, "energy": 77.658371, "activity_lines": [ 47.080553, 46.823404, 46.390818, 45.721291 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }