{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3500071a-b7f3-4ff0-b805-aed512db7dca", "symbol": "QBTS", "name": "D-Wave Quantum Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 86.148, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -16.411, "architecture_energy": 31.37, "architecture_maturity": 4.433, "architecture_confidence": 59.123, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.31, "rotation_up": 15.85, "upward_expansion": 18.85, "deceleration": 55.07, "rotation_down": 56.39, "downward_expansion": 43.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.553333, 19.745455, 21.194905, 20.701935 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 20.76, "trend_reference": 20.648333, "distance_from_trend": 0.005408, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.531531, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.971223, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.921602, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.001931, "excess_performance": -0.123694, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005408, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072707, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.971223, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.584867, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.189216, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.134215, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.001931, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.871136, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 105540652, "relative_activity": 0.743139, "balance": 0.871136, "dry_up": 0.689835, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.241529, "annualized_volatility": 1.053847, "from_high_reference": -0.555936, "from_low_reference": 0.628235 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.648333, "fair_value_reference": 10.531531, "structural_low": 12.75, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.033805, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.022996, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.061404, "worst_return": -0.129014, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.256936, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.195285, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.627907, "worst_return": -0.114035, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 3.385965, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 3.265762, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 3.385965, "worst_return": 3.385965, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 12.307018, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 12.193163, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 12.307018, "worst_return": 12.307018, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.198347, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.83125, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.966887, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.746988, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.858852, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.720871, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.117713, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.036257, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029347, "active": false }, { 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24.169636, 22.232476, 21.715978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 20.09, "volume": 84398597, "typical_volume": 146286161.05, "trend": 21.867333, "fair_value": 10.122044, "relative_strength": -20.48217, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.080059, "energy": 9.839954, "activity_lines": [ 22.106667, 23.456, 22.186238, 21.588387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.73, "volume": 84681211, "typical_volume": 143761867.4, "trend": 21.531, "fair_value": 10.213839, "relative_strength": -32.434874, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.316561, "energy": 23.072341, "activity_lines": [ 20.120667, 22.138727, 21.810333, 21.256946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.21, "volume": 72055548, "typical_volume": 141422424.15, "trend": 21.228333, "fair_value": 10.304288, "relative_strength": -33.84279, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.838812, "energy": 36.844769, "activity_lines": [ 18.404, 20.833091, 21.394667, 20.913656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.08, "volume": 129604648, "typical_volume": 142351980.55, "trend": 20.893333, "fair_value": 10.407749, "relative_strength": -26.907708, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.362109, "energy": 39.564637, "activity_lines": [ 17.876, 19.942727, 21.168429, 20.710538 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.76, "volume": 105540652, "typical_volume": 142020139.05, "trend": 20.648333, "fair_value": 10.531531, "relative_strength": -18.921602, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.411348, "energy": 31.369887, "activity_lines": [ 18.553333, 19.745455, 21.194905, 20.701935 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }