{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3505d636-145f-451a-98a0-38eb62c81f41", "symbol": "SBIN", "name": "Amundi MSCI Emerging Markets ESG Broad Transition - UCITS ETF DR (C)", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 80.015, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 11.159, "architecture_energy": 18.622, "architecture_maturity": 64.828, "architecture_confidence": 86.633, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.31, "rotation_up": 16.91, "upward_expansion": 45.6, "deceleration": 87.92, "rotation_down": 39.4, "downward_expansion": 28.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 84.551333, 85.797636, 85.899571, 84.128559 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 85.790001, "trend_reference": 81.872667, "distance_from_trend": 0.047847, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 60.633709, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.41489, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.870132, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.102841, "excess_performance": 0.038201, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.047847, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069509, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.41489, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.119075, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.038701, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.20381, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.102841, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.867571, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8785, "relative_activity": 0.97919, "balance": 0.867571, "dry_up": 1.326783, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043236, "annualized_volatility": 0.260431, "from_high_reference": -0.066079, "from_low_reference": 0.342146 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 81.872667, "fair_value_reference": 60.633709, "structural_low": 70.900002, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.005935, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.002382, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.147947, "worst_return": -0.041731, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.014088, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.018931, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.226722, "worst_return": -0.006415, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.072259, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.042776, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.124588, "worst_return": 0.018003, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.074408, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.10718, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.101137, "worst_return": 0.04768, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.039774, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.024248, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023155, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.015925, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006999, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.033532, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.006428, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.067473, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.04973, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.131226, "active": 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81.11, "fair_value": 60.173803, "relative_strength": 6.984844, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.536442, "energy": 22.68145, "activity_lines": [ 85.074665, 86.614181, 85.626238, 83.668709 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 83.93, "volume": 5690, "typical_volume": 8999.6, "trend": 81.482334, "fair_value": 60.394297, "relative_strength": 4.749023, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.706528, "energy": 22.149969, "activity_lines": [ 84.362666, 86.019272, 85.697666, 83.850645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 85.790001, "volume": 8785, "typical_volume": 8971.7, "trend": 81.872667, "fair_value": 60.633709, "relative_strength": 3.870132, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.159244, "energy": 18.622337, "activity_lines": [ 84.551333, 85.797636, 85.899571, 84.128559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }