{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3507ad80-65f5-46d3-8892-51010921fda4", "symbol": "BULL-M", "name": "Bull Trading and Investment Ltd.", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.88, "architecture_energy": 87.736, "architecture_maturity": 59.415, "architecture_confidence": 92.803, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.0, "rotation_up": 29.85, "upward_expansion": 21.96, "deceleration": 37.01, "rotation_down": 53.76, "downward_expansion": 92.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.9, 3.921818, 4.006667, 4.089462 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.9, "trend_reference": 4.24, "distance_from_trend": -0.080189, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.127712, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.246918, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.465085, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.170213, "excess_performance": -0.199113, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.080189, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083573, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.246918, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.118876, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.204651, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.095824, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.170213, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.009862, "annualized_volatility": 0.25085, "from_high_reference": -0.35, "from_low_reference": 0.21875 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.24, "fair_value_reference": 3.127712, "structural_low": 3.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.074219, "positive_rate": 0.36, "directional_follow_through": 0.56, "median_excess_return": -0.071804, "regime_survival": 0.88, "best_return": 37.167939, "worst_return": -0.689227, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.255034, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.214945, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 42.624161, "worst_return": -0.826291, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.04878, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.348803, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 38.597315, "worst_return": -0.907668, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.04878, "positive_rate": 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"direction": -77.956576, "energy": 91.795259, "activity_lines": [ 3.94, 4.001818, 4.092381, 4.210323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.9, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 120438.7, "trend": 4.4, "fair_value": 3.069872, "relative_strength": -22.706904, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.415021, "energy": 89.650154, "activity_lines": [ 3.913333, 3.976364, 4.066667, 4.173763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.9, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 119479.65, "trend": 4.333333, "fair_value": 3.087827, "relative_strength": -23.675855, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.264207, "energy": 88.410305, "activity_lines": [ 3.9, 3.954545, 4.044286, 4.141505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.9, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 94757.7, "trend": 4.273333, "fair_value": 3.107904, "relative_strength": -20.689896, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.116698, "energy": 87.665953, "activity_lines": [ 3.9, 3.936364, 4.025238, 4.113548 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.9, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 73300.95, "trend": 4.24, "fair_value": 3.127712, "relative_strength": -20.465085, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.879529, "energy": 87.735993, "activity_lines": [ 3.9, 3.921818, 4.006667, 4.089462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }