{ "ticker": { "uuid": "35143acb-78c6-413d-9454-6580d2250ce0", "symbol": "ADP", "name": "Automatic Data Processing, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 54.483, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.975, "architecture_energy": 93.284, "architecture_maturity": 21.332, "architecture_confidence": 62.816, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.07, "rotation_up": 87.01, "upward_expansion": 99.73, "deceleration": 39.09, "rotation_down": 8.6, "downward_expansion": 21.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 227.156665, 218.306838, 204.862979, 197.955101 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 235.5, "trend_reference": 193.564813, "distance_from_trend": 0.216647, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 228.444739, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.030884, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.720549, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.207587, "excess_performance": 0.03334, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.216647, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012495, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.030884, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.246515, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.097205, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.241444, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.207587, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 6.0, "dry_up": 3.508772, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046841, "annualized_volatility": 0.333284, "from_high_reference": -0.093231, "from_low_reference": 0.470837 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 193.564813, "fair_value_reference": 228.444739, "structural_low": 160.112879, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.006018, "positive_rate": 0.52, "directional_follow_through": 0.52, "median_excess_return": -0.017058, "regime_survival": 0.64, "best_return": 0.194817, "worst_return": -0.109166, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.043608, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.021458, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.18886, "worst_return": -0.174209, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.021904, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.013316, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.2491, "worst_return": -0.029598, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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32.967104, "activity_lines": [ 191.030898, 184.090646, 181.419561, 186.969736 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 195.320007, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 13.2, "trend": 194.861501, "fair_value": 227.610513, "relative_strength": -27.271974, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": 10.855959, "energy": 34.121735, "activity_lines": [ 193.53278, 187.073006, 182.532147, 186.95929 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 190.619995, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 11.8, "trend": 194.046721, "fair_value": 227.646081, "relative_strength": -30.987413, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": 5.197892, "energy": 33.035812, "activity_lines": [ 193.338453, 188.837182, 183.302104, 186.685644 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 195.119995, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 9.35, "trend": 193.31476, "fair_value": 227.69603, "relative_strength": -27.122114, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.401701, "energy": 49.700749, "activity_lines": [ 194.081755, 190.88686, 184.56738, 186.754888 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 213.949997, "volume": 10, "typical_volume": 9.2, "trend": 193.064632, "fair_value": 227.866385, "relative_strength": -21.090684, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 51.719073, "energy": 60.939128, "activity_lines": [ 200.81841, 195.864298, 187.625499, 188.086193 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 211.350006, "volume": 35, "typical_volume": 10.65, "trend": 192.637811, "fair_value": 228.004832, "relative_strength": -20.181503, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 54.065029, "energy": 70.171096, "activity_lines": [ 204.964667, 199.486063, 190.259319, 189.265895 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 222.449997, "volume": 56, "typical_volume": 13.25, "trend": 192.701529, "fair_value": 228.148683, "relative_strength": -13.531936, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 61.655556, "energy": 83.581868, "activity_lines": [ 212.023999, 204.56003, 193.799095, 191.189262 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 219.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 8.65, "trend": 192.782346, "fair_value": 228.181358, "relative_strength": -15.183135, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.624396, "energy": 89.540248, "activity_lines": [ 216.124666, 208.205396, 196.80522, 192.885937 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 229.149994, "volume": 144, "typical_volume": 14.4, "trend": 193.295616, "fair_value": 228.30719, "relative_strength": -10.320304, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.334079, "energy": 92.495549, "activity_lines": [ 221.716665, 213.026841, 200.645218, 195.232237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 235.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 14.25, "trend": 193.564813, "fair_value": 228.444739, "relative_strength": -9.720549, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.975074, "energy": 93.283907, "activity_lines": [ 227.156665, 218.306838, 204.862979, 197.955101 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }