{ "ticker": { "uuid": "35146136-8b23-4dd2-8135-e902d8cd90c7", "symbol": "HSWD", "name": "HSBC Developed World Screened Equity UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 91.859, "architecture_energy": 75.04, "architecture_maturity": 88.734, "architecture_confidence": 76.332, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.17, "rotation_up": 61.94, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 68.5, "rotation_down": 29.08, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.992667, 29.773454, 29.118667, 28.347495 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 30.73, "trend_reference": 27.443833, "distance_from_trend": 0.119742, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.906999, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.341511, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.39132, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.179655, "excess_performance": 0.008763, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.119742, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057172, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.341511, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087114, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.003913, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021435, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.179655, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.905473, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 34476, "relative_activity": 5.601527, "balance": 1.905473, "dry_up": 2.414395, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015783, "annualized_volatility": 0.11892, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.301567 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.443833, "fair_value_reference": 22.906999, "structural_low": 24.775, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.017047, "positive_rate": 0.65625, "directional_follow_through": 0.65625, "median_excess_return": 0.003844, "regime_survival": 0.78125, "best_return": 0.056998, "worst_return": -0.057034, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.039526, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.00465, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.115629, "worst_return": -0.060958, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.073332, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.018519, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.124033, "worst_return": -0.067565, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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29.384364, 28.476929, 27.793247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.73, "volume": 8184, "typical_volume": 4684.15, "trend": 27.154167, "fair_value": 22.752159, "relative_strength": 0.74475, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.016287, "energy": 69.194104, "activity_lines": [ 29.660334, 29.485546, 28.681738, 27.96857 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.584999, "volume": 149, "typical_volume": 4473.55, "trend": 27.2875, "fair_value": 22.825473, "relative_strength": -0.426679, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.228828, "energy": 65.961494, "activity_lines": [ 29.642, 29.531636, 28.854976, 28.125398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.73, "volume": 34476, "typical_volume": 6154.75, "trend": 27.443833, "fair_value": 22.906999, "relative_strength": 0.39132, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 91.858785, "energy": 75.040143, "activity_lines": [ 29.992667, 29.773454, 29.118667, 28.347495 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }