{ "ticker": { "uuid": "351884dd-0e1f-4ba2-a0f1-5c6a1708de3c", "symbol": "AC", "name": "Accor SA", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 72.963, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 31.171, "architecture_energy": 27.039, "architecture_maturity": 60.913, "architecture_confidence": 70.234, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.04, "rotation_up": 22.34, "upward_expansion": 56.27, "deceleration": 91.05, "rotation_down": 36.79, "downward_expansion": 22.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 46.659333, 47.545272, 46.52451, 45.623313 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 47.23, "trend_reference": 45.027612, "distance_from_trend": 0.048912, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 39.877382, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.184381, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.878576, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.001436, "excess_performance": -0.175683, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.048912, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017067, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.184381, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065377, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.128786, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036286, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.001436, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.337385, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3951, "relative_activity": 3.26475, "balance": 0.337385, "dry_up": 3.848537, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04496, "annualized_volatility": 0.31692, "from_high_reference": -0.080771, "from_low_reference": 0.288026 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 45.027612, "fair_value_reference": 39.877382, "structural_low": 36.668517, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.013682, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.022264, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.135946, "worst_return": -0.157613, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.01096, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.067506, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.252951, "worst_return": -0.172906, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.013608, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.103352, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.184721, "worst_return": -0.130733, "sufficient": true }, { 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"color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024728, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028279, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.041276, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021159, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008271, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.080241, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.106401, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.045108, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.075622, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 29.944101, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 26.3, "trend": 28.579028, "fair_value": 26.083113, "relative_strength": 18.388933, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.231528, "energy": 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"close": 49.060001, "volume": 3419, "typical_volume": 278.7, "trend": 45.012245, "fair_value": 39.476531, "relative_strength": -9.451622, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.776342, "energy": 82.195635, "activity_lines": [ 49.544, 48.021794, 45.765914, 45.244208 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 46.919998, "volume": 2950, "typical_volume": 426.2, "trend": 45.045314, "fair_value": 39.57635, "relative_strength": -11.143919, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.457078, "energy": 67.357654, "activity_lines": [ 48.808666, 48.081048, 46.011706, 45.367289 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 46.48, "volume": 3268, "typical_volume": 589.6, "trend": 45.041044, "fair_value": 39.675937, "relative_strength": -12.541805, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.80111, "energy": 39.589479, "activity_lines": [ 47.933333, 47.990505, 46.217763, 45.459849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.349998, "volume": 8461, "typical_volume": 1012.65, "trend": 45.005262, "fair_value": 39.773752, "relative_strength": -14.26338, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.732498, "energy": 23.703375, "activity_lines": [ 46.819333, 47.613454, 46.294371, 45.479782 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.23, "volume": 3951, "typical_volume": 1210.2, "trend": 45.027612, "fair_value": 39.877382, "relative_strength": -12.878576, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.170818, "energy": 27.038609, "activity_lines": [ 46.659333, 47.545272, 46.52451, 45.623313 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }