{ "ticker": { "uuid": "351d9955-8d3b-4927-a76e-ce19ec7a2812", "symbol": "OIH", "name": "VANECK ETF TR VANECK OIL SERVICES ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 49.936, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -10.612, "architecture_energy": 11.227, "architecture_maturity": 28.055, "architecture_confidence": 62.663, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.67, "rotation_up": 27.66, "upward_expansion": 19.47, "deceleration": 71.28, "rotation_down": 29.6, "downward_expansion": 30.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 386.256, 384.39, 397.931, 398.907978 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 388.28, "trend_reference": 393.333667, "distance_from_trend": -0.012848, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 301.112838, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.289483, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.988928, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.057667, "excess_performance": -0.067958, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.012848, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091804, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.289483, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.15424, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.019889, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.238916, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.057667, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.75472, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 864662, "relative_activity": 0.47503, "balance": 0.75472, "dry_up": 0.697531, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06868, "annualized_volatility": 0.32223, "from_high_reference": -0.15459, "from_low_reference": 0.699411 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 393.333667, "fair_value_reference": 301.112838, "structural_low": 356.76, "invalidation": "A sustained 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381.847333, 400.369455, 407.660333, 398.818672 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 380.24, "volume": 1691574, "typical_volume": 2141570.65, "trend": 381.061576, "fair_value": 299.473199, "relative_strength": 4.536004, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.077006, "energy": 35.860283, "activity_lines": [ 377.693333, 394.380182, 405.241667, 398.949908 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 378.99, "volume": 1628130, "typical_volume": 2103871.0, "trend": 384.341667, "fair_value": 299.898593, "relative_strength": 5.237809, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.316444, "energy": 46.174065, "activity_lines": [ 375.42, 389.336182, 402.748286, 398.816258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 391.66, "volume": 1213160, "typical_volume": 1965723.6, "trend": 388.013, "fair_value": 300.353804, "relative_strength": 8.807897, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.209502, "energy": 38.677831, "activity_lines": [ 380.648667, 387.356727, 401.54719, 399.288409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 384.81, "volume": 1372700, "typical_volume": 1908136.15, "trend": 390.973667, "fair_value": 300.738734, "relative_strength": 5.167143, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.398865, "energy": 16.562532, "activity_lines": [ 383.182667, 385.020182, 399.606429, 399.081763 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 388.28, "volume": 864662, "typical_volume": 1820224.35, "trend": 393.333667, "fair_value": 301.112838, "relative_strength": 1.988928, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.612289, "energy": 11.226736, "activity_lines": [ 386.256, 384.39, 397.931, 398.907978 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }