{ "ticker": { "uuid": "352706f1-712e-4f38-bce4-dc4d1b121da4", "symbol": "4150", "name": "Unicon Optical Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.946, "architecture_energy": 79.475, "architecture_maturity": 94.0, "architecture_confidence": 89.215, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.74, "rotation_up": 11.76, "upward_expansion": 18.27, "deceleration": 37.3, "rotation_down": 75.38, "downward_expansion": 93.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.08, 4.426, 4.90819, 5.266323 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 3.85, "trend_reference": 5.781667, "distance_from_trend": -0.334102, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.805962, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.673894, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -63.338568, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.452347, "excess_performance": -0.893719, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.334102, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.164378, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.673894, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.162434, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.633386, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.10105, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.452347, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.193512, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3356935, "relative_activity": 1.100979, "balance": 0.193512, "dry_up": 0.971438, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.188412, "annualized_volatility": 0.600348, "from_high_reference": -0.67234, "from_low_reference": 0.084507 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.781667, "fair_value_reference": 11.805962, "structural_low": 3.55, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.007404, "positive_rate": 0.45, "directional_follow_through": 0.525, "median_excess_return": -0.025511, "regime_survival": 0.825, "best_return": 0.516908, "worst_return": -0.21748, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.057354, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.116285, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.636872, "worst_return": -0.267559, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.088582, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.167843, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.561576, "worst_return": -0.348214, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-01-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.185039, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.343849, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.007519, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.048101, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008646, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": 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"relative_strength": -57.695873, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.95628, "energy": 51.28915, "activity_lines": [ 4.868, 4.968727, 5.353905, 5.670903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.05, "volume": 4502420, "typical_volume": 2949586.9, "trend": 6.030333, "fair_value": 11.892051, "relative_strength": -61.25399, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.691637, "energy": 60.921299, "activity_lines": [ 4.584, 4.776727, 5.20419, 5.534731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.92, "volume": 2678459, "typical_volume": 2995790.3, "trend": 5.9, "fair_value": 11.852115, "relative_strength": -62.401807, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.311422, "energy": 76.91219, "activity_lines": [ 4.313333, 4.594727, 5.054238, 5.398581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 3.85, "volume": 3356935, "typical_volume": 3049045.25, "trend": 5.781667, "fair_value": 11.805962, "relative_strength": -63.338568, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.94564, "energy": 79.475145, "activity_lines": [ 4.08, 4.426, 4.90819, 5.266323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }