{ "ticker": { "uuid": "35271733-d893-4ca6-81a3-59aa8505152a", "symbol": "BDL", "name": "Bharat Dynamics Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.92, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.871, "architecture_energy": 32.966, "architecture_maturity": 14.201, "architecture_confidence": 78.677, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.61, "rotation_up": 13.29, "upward_expansion": 4.39, "deceleration": 47.01, "rotation_down": 59.05, "downward_expansion": 73.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 1271.033333, 1293.72909, 1301.343808, 1302.51066 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1294.0, "trend_reference": 1316.005587, "distance_from_trend": -0.016721, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1221.631861, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.059239, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.565203, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.023815, "excess_performance": 0.067524, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.016721, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045845, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.059239, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.188789, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.065652, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047481, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.023815, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.47213, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5437426, "relative_activity": 1.081599, "balance": 0.47213, "dry_up": 0.837493, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064445, "annualized_volatility": 0.413034, "from_high_reference": -0.214869, "from_low_reference": 0.191529 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1316.005587, "fair_value_reference": 1221.631861, "structural_low": 1086.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.053916, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": 0.048971, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.313717, "worst_return": -0.249996, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.184477, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.171946, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.711031, "worst_return": 0.078792, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.735149, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.674484, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.915855, "worst_return": 0.28929, "sufficient": false }, { 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"date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1253.099976, "volume": 3222662, "typical_volume": 5005265.75, "trend": 1323.375773, "fair_value": 1216.899563, "relative_strength": -9.091556, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.976171, "energy": 35.576114, "activity_lines": [ 1271.939999, 1291.867272, 1301.856188, 1304.405871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1294.0, "volume": 5437426, "typical_volume": 5027212.45, "trend": 1316.005587, "fair_value": 1221.631861, "relative_strength": -6.565203, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.871116, "energy": 32.966185, "activity_lines": [ 1271.033333, 1293.72909, 1301.343808, 1302.51066 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }