{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3529fe0d-ada5-41e6-a1e7-a8e176fcff48", "symbol": "TINM", "name": "WisdomTree Tin", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 71.822, "architecture_energy": 73.261, "architecture_maturity": 37.507, "architecture_confidence": 87.828, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.97, "rotation_up": 69.95, "upward_expansion": 94.19, "deceleration": 40.62, "rotation_down": 18.15, "downward_expansion": 16.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 109.202666, 107.673999, 105.740618, 103.286924 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 110.220001, "trend_reference": 100.764333, "distance_from_trend": 0.093839, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 70.209744, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.569868, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 7.164265, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.225075, "excess_performance": 0.054183, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.093839, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.102169, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.569868, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021512, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.071643, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109419, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.225075, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.651694, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 281, "relative_activity": 0.758332, "balance": 0.651694, "dry_up": 0.78397, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034483, "annualized_volatility": 0.418707, "from_high_reference": -0.04023, "from_low_reference": 0.696214 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 100.764333, "fair_value_reference": 70.209744, "structural_low": 82.389999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.02172, "positive_rate": 0.633333, "directional_follow_through": 0.633333, "median_excess_return": 0.026322, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.12691, "worst_return": -0.152764, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.089924, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.047956, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.36386, "worst_return": -0.363919, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.017767, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.052383, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.416727, "worst_return": -0.263985, "sufficient": true }, { 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.386531, "energy": 40.1744, "activity_lines": [ 105.824666, 105.701635, 103.260476, 101.238537 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 108.559998, "volume": 152, "typical_volume": 378.7, "trend": 99.027333, "fair_value": 69.482308, "relative_strength": 10.52622, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.256227, "energy": 49.210759, "activity_lines": [ 106.856666, 106.249817, 104.03938, 101.90858 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 110.239998, "volume": 633, "typical_volume": 382.4, "trend": 100.068332, "fair_value": 69.838141, "relative_strength": 10.900168, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.441853, "energy": 63.760251, "activity_lines": [ 108.315332, 107.006908, 104.92819, 102.631978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 110.220001, "volume": 281, "typical_volume": 370.55, "trend": 100.764333, "fair_value": 70.209744, "relative_strength": 7.164265, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.822296, "energy": 73.261401, "activity_lines": [ 109.202666, 107.673999, 105.740618, 103.286924 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }