{ "ticker": { "uuid": "352a028c-375c-411c-8d6d-9553c208e830", "symbol": "SWP", "name": "Sword Group S.E.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 82.275, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -6.54, "architecture_energy": 4.417, "architecture_maturity": 13.352, "architecture_confidence": 48.08, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.76, "rotation_up": 24.74, "upward_expansion": 22.37, "deceleration": 42.93, "rotation_down": 30.25, "downward_expansion": 55.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.61, 30.326363, 30.686486, 30.629237 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 31.75, "trend_reference": 30.89904, "distance_from_trend": 0.02754, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 31.511221, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.007578, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.64476, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.010296, "excess_performance": -0.063608, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.02754, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032986, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.007578, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021744, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.076448, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057381, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.010296, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.554525, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 41173, "relative_activity": 0.568099, "balance": 0.554525, "dry_up": 0.828467, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051242, "annualized_volatility": 0.258697, "from_high_reference": -0.148655, "from_low_reference": 0.132274 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.89904, "fair_value_reference": 31.511221, "structural_low": 28.04091, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.012019, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": 0.006439, "regime_survival": 0.526316, "best_return": 0.135858, "worst_return": -0.152318, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.027042, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.056802, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.225962, "worst_return": -0.115854, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.009645, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.008861, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.232432, "worst_return": -0.053704, "sufficient": 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.025333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.090652, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025886, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.071118, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.104941, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": 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"relative_strength": -11.899008, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.477277, "energy": 53.458286, "activity_lines": [ 29.78, 30.294545, 30.652799, 30.723503 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.799999, "volume": 65831, "typical_volume": 72320.75, "trend": 31.078535, "fair_value": 31.56263, "relative_strength": -13.520761, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.273671, "energy": 52.924998, "activity_lines": [ 29.45, 29.930909, 30.49114, 30.56682 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.299999, "volume": 96689, "typical_volume": 72897.9, "trend": 31.00399, "fair_value": 31.535078, "relative_strength": -7.162029, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.436076, "energy": 23.234166, "activity_lines": [ 30.033333, 30.080909, 30.572684, 30.581108 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.75, "volume": 41173, "typical_volume": 72475.1, "trend": 30.89904, "fair_value": 31.511221, "relative_strength": -7.64476, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.539586, "energy": 4.416785, "activity_lines": [ 30.61, 30.326363, 30.686486, 30.629237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }