{ "ticker": { "uuid": "352ad92c-a187-4af9-b30c-507ada633040", "symbol": "RAC", "name": "Racura Oncology Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.45, "architecture_energy": 77.087, "architecture_maturity": 25.197, "architecture_confidence": 86.387, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.38, "rotation_up": 11.58, "upward_expansion": 17.96, "deceleration": 37.24, "rotation_down": 76.84, "downward_expansion": 95.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.025, 2.127818, 2.32581, 2.399269 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 1.995, "trend_reference": 2.462833, "distance_from_trend": -0.189957, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.700833, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.172954, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.225594, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.113333, "excess_performance": -0.177039, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.189957, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080232, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.172954, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.509036, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.272256, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.445698, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.113333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.916597, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 482789, "relative_activity": 0.753946, "balance": 0.916597, "dry_up": 0.662544, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.120301, "annualized_volatility": 0.621031, "from_high_reference": -0.592857, "from_low_reference": 0.757709 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.462833, "fair_value_reference": 1.700833, "structural_low": 1.91, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.038674, "positive_rate": 0.387097, "directional_follow_through": 0.612903, "median_excess_return": -0.010598, "regime_survival": 0.806452, "best_return": 0.562162, "worst_return": -0.337121, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.067839, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.043206, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.758389, "worst_return": -0.306122, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.203551, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.168405, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.154362, "worst_return": -0.435606, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.155849, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.133957, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.128, "worst_return": -0.625628, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.106227, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028369, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.037162, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.017361, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.079365, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.067669, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.074219, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.052863, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 1.143791, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-02-06", 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392395, "typical_volume": 708328.75, "trend": 2.519333, "fair_value": 1.690096, "relative_strength": -20.203642, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.856647, "energy": 73.133574, "activity_lines": [ 2.142, 2.254, 2.429905, 2.467849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.95, "volume": 451112, "typical_volume": 703609.45, "trend": 2.488667, "fair_value": 1.694455, "relative_strength": -26.228875, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.577619, "energy": 77.806023, "activity_lines": [ 2.067333, 2.182, 2.37519, 2.431118 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.995, "volume": 482789, "typical_volume": 640349.25, "trend": 2.462833, "fair_value": 1.700833, "relative_strength": -27.225594, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.449787, "energy": 77.086916, "activity_lines": [ 2.025, 2.127818, 2.32581, 2.399269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }