{ "ticker": { "uuid": "352b0592-196b-4afd-bb52-f4e69606e890", "symbol": "PMG", "name": "The Parkmead Group plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 46.831, "architecture_energy": 39.509, "architecture_maturity": 37.974, "architecture_confidence": 63.38, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.5, "rotation_up": 69.43, "upward_expansion": 70.78, "deceleration": 50.73, "rotation_down": 11.71, "downward_expansion": 14.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.2129, 0.204564, 0.202029, 0.204083 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.215, "trend_reference": 0.2002, "distance_from_trend": 0.073926, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.157952, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.361174, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 12.279432, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.228571, "excess_performance": 0.177336, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.073926, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.104755, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.361174, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076496, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.122794, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01521, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.228571, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.370521, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 396141, "relative_activity": 0.481921, "balance": 3.370521, "dry_up": 0.603038, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0801, "annualized_volatility": 0.423101, "from_high_reference": -0.203704, "from_low_reference": 0.72 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.2002, "fair_value_reference": 0.157952, "structural_low": 0.175, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.043914, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.002913, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.164602, "worst_return": -0.143791, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.022727, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.057133, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.181818, "worst_return": -0.380379, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.218876, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.272858, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.015625, "worst_return": -0.389831, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.092593, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.065574, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.007353, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.115385, "active": false }, { 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"volume": 255943, "typical_volume": 983693.1, "trend": 0.19545, "fair_value": 0.157455, "relative_strength": 14.470257, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.162993, "energy": 20.821071, "activity_lines": [ 0.203633, 0.197764, 0.200443, 0.201711 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.215, "volume": 418731, "typical_volume": 893262.75, "trend": 0.197783, "fair_value": 0.157663, "relative_strength": 12.849808, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.766875, "energy": 32.942504, "activity_lines": [ 0.208933, 0.201345, 0.201176, 0.202972 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.215, "volume": 396141, "typical_volume": 822004.45, "trend": 0.2002, "fair_value": 0.157952, "relative_strength": 12.279432, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.831315, "energy": 39.508592, "activity_lines": [ 0.2129, 0.204564, 0.202029, 0.204083 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }