{ "ticker": { "uuid": "352f398b-17dc-4f23-a8bc-83cbbdda71f6", "symbol": "BME", "name": "BlackRock Health Sciences Trust", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.202, "architecture_energy": 73.69, "architecture_maturity": 17.491, "architecture_confidence": 74.47, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.42, "rotation_up": 77.33, "upward_expansion": 92.62, "deceleration": 44.42, "rotation_down": 13.78, "downward_expansion": 14.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.394997, 42.807226, 41.460647, 40.815238 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 44.11, "trend_reference": 40.333358, "distance_from_trend": 0.093636, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 35.648769, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.23735, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.306066, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.082379, "excess_performance": -0.043246, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.093636, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026364, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.23735, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.13521, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.013061, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082399, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.082379, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.537491, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 231928, "relative_activity": 0.974978, "balance": 1.537491, "dry_up": 1.004735, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031384, "annualized_volatility": 0.16126, "from_high_reference": -0.004963, "from_low_reference": 0.346948 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.333358, "fair_value_reference": 35.648769, "structural_low": 36.776997, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.003227, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": -0.012339, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.089768, "worst_return": -0.068999, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.045791, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.058679, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.109487, "worst_return": -0.087776, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.006288, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.100685, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.065009, "worst_return": -0.060471, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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40.207749, "fair_value": 35.574473, "relative_strength": 3.568943, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.495065, "energy": 79.596575, "activity_lines": [ 43.026728, 42.365561, 41.075456, 40.56348 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 44.11, "volume": 231928, "typical_volume": 237880.35, "trend": 40.333358, "fair_value": 35.648769, "relative_strength": 1.306066, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.201968, "energy": 73.689988, "activity_lines": [ 43.394997, 42.807226, 41.460647, 40.815238 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }