{ "ticker": { "uuid": "35326c0d-1e7b-470f-b738-f8c81f0d055f", "symbol": "IFLEX", "name": "Iflex Flexible Packaging, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -24.998, "architecture_energy": 11.045, "architecture_maturity": 12.347, "architecture_confidence": 75.784, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.62, "rotation_up": 20.6, "upward_expansion": 26.65, "deceleration": 42.83, "rotation_down": 39.27, "downward_expansion": 50.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.597333, 1.598727, 1.593048, 1.592516 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.58, "trend_reference": 1.607667, "distance_from_trend": -0.017209, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.649778, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.042295, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.130523, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.024691, "excess_performance": -0.149122, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.017209, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028405, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.042295, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000623, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.181305, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01958, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.024691, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.368524, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1415, "relative_activity": 0.397215, "balance": 0.368524, "dry_up": 0.814011, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021908, "annualized_volatility": 0.206276, "from_high_reference": -0.11236, "from_low_reference": 0.039474 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.607667, "fair_value_reference": 1.649778, "structural_low": 1.52, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.039216, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.05988, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-10-11", "close": 1.544252, "volume": 800, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, 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"relative_strength": -13.017475, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": 10.55679, "energy": 9.334584, "activity_lines": [ 1.603333, 1.591636, 1.585905, 1.597806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.67, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3248.35, "trend": 1.626333, "fair_value": 1.652029, "relative_strength": -11.540529, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.181165, "energy": 41.024026, "activity_lines": [ 1.63, 1.607091, 1.594333, 1.600387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.59, "volume": 1958, "typical_volume": 3164.65, "trend": 1.621333, "fair_value": 1.651369, "relative_strength": -16.612725, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.562297, "energy": 30.13513, "activity_lines": [ 1.624667, 1.606545, 1.594905, 1.598043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.57, "volume": 8226, "typical_volume": 3496.55, "trend": 1.614333, "fair_value": 1.650513, "relative_strength": -17.667548, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.228284, "energy": 25.898047, "activity_lines": [ 1.61, 1.601636, 1.593524, 1.594731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.58, "volume": 1415, "typical_volume": 3562.3, "trend": 1.607667, "fair_value": 1.649778, "relative_strength": -18.130523, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.997654, "energy": 11.044551, "activity_lines": [ 1.597333, 1.598727, 1.593048, 1.592516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }