{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3537c444-3c23-4049-8b97-c8296f55570a", "symbol": "KINV-A", "name": "Kinnevik AB", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 79.161, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.345, "architecture_energy": 35.426, "architecture_maturity": 21.576, "architecture_confidence": 87.176, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.0, "rotation_up": 16.55, "upward_expansion": 7.47, "deceleration": 41.42, "rotation_down": 58.17, "downward_expansion": 80.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 62.233331, 63.270908, 64.45238, 64.638494 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 65.199997, "trend_reference": 66.51, "distance_from_trend": -0.019696, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 89.151859, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.268664, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -23.817198, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.098202, "excess_performance": -0.159696, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.019696, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090524, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.268664, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077513, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.238172, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.081035, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.098202, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.685775, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 131055, "relative_activity": 3.609903, "balance": 2.685775, "dry_up": 1.356217, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.100991, "annualized_volatility": 0.445081, "from_high_reference": -0.36699, "from_low_reference": 0.185454 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 66.51, "fair_value_reference": 89.151859, "structural_low": 55.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.03796, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": 0.008611, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.206266, "worst_return": -0.133117, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.00657, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.052772, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.170635, "worst_return": -0.340909, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.215943, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.267489, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.375344, "worst_return": -0.361244, "sufficient": true }, { 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.154925, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031434, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.064, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.058231, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.066882, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.06738, 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"modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.983807, "energy": 41.643106, "activity_lines": [ 62.633332, 64.725454, 64.802381, 65.369032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 58.599998, "volume": 41926, "typical_volume": 32897.15, "trend": 67.123333, "fair_value": 89.576218, "relative_strength": -31.14875, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.381894, "energy": 54.44717, "activity_lines": [ 61.219999, 63.310908, 64.304761, 64.76258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 65.199997, "volume": 131055, "typical_volume": 36304.3, "trend": 66.51, "fair_value": 89.151859, "relative_strength": -23.817198, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.34455, "energy": 35.426185, "activity_lines": [ 62.233331, 63.270908, 64.45238, 64.638494 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }