{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3538972b-cf87-4341-a707-782552a937f5", "symbol": "AEG", "name": "Aegis Brands Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.339, "architecture_energy": 19.219, "architecture_maturity": 52.272, "architecture_confidence": 90.925, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.85, "rotation_up": 21.27, "upward_expansion": 12.09, "deceleration": 41.77, "rotation_down": 41.07, "downward_expansion": 64.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.262667, 0.262364, 0.264, 0.269333 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.26, "trend_reference": 0.277, "distance_from_trend": -0.061372, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.331667, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.21608, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.510461, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.071429, "excess_performance": -0.19185, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.061372, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038194, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.21608, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004402, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.215105, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046767, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.071429, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.530103, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22500, "relative_activity": 0.659051, "balance": 0.530103, "dry_up": 0.249707, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091716, "annualized_volatility": 0.488084, "from_high_reference": -0.365854, "from_low_reference": 0.130435 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.277, "fair_value_reference": 0.331667, "structural_low": 0.23, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": -0.01668, "regime_survival": 0.815789, "best_return": 0.486486, "worst_return": -0.366667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.071429, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.095669, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.423077, "worst_return": -0.375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.090909, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.202169, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.48, "worst_return": -0.444444, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.075, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.054054, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.028571, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.105263, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 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-48.417654, "energy": 28.976004, "activity_lines": [ 0.262, 0.262909, 0.267714, 0.274301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.26, "volume": 2000, "typical_volume": 35905.0, "trend": 0.282333, "fair_value": 0.33391, "relative_strength": -22.039997, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.832255, "energy": 27.008552, "activity_lines": [ 0.261333, 0.262364, 0.26619, 0.272817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.27, "volume": 5400, "typical_volume": 33980.0, "trend": 0.282333, "fair_value": 0.333077, "relative_strength": -18.131242, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.998856, "energy": 20.699883, "activity_lines": [ 0.264667, 0.263818, 0.26581, 0.272022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.26, "volume": 4200, "typical_volume": 33465.0, "trend": 0.279333, "fair_value": 0.332179, "relative_strength": -19.861232, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.923402, "energy": 17.602553, "activity_lines": [ 0.263333, 0.263273, 0.26481, 0.270581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.26, "volume": 22500, "typical_volume": 34140.0, "trend": 0.277, "fair_value": 0.331667, "relative_strength": -21.510461, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.339006, "energy": 19.218716, "activity_lines": [ 0.262667, 0.262364, 0.264, 0.269333 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }